Vaccines Alone Cannot Slow the Evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

The rapid emergence of immune-evading viral variants of SARS-CoV-2 calls into question the practicality of a vaccine-only public-health strategy for managing the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. It has been suggested that widespread vaccination is necessary to prevent the emergence of future immune-evading mutants. Here, we examined that proposition using stochastic computational models of viral transmission and mutation. Specifically, we looked at the likelihood of emergence of immune escape variants requiring multiple mutations and the impact of vaccination on this process. Our results suggest that the transmission rate of intermediate SARS-CoV-2 mutants will impact the rate at which novel immune-evading variants appear. While vaccination can lower the rate at which new variants appear, other interventions that reduce transmission can also have the same effect. Crucially, relying solely on widespread and repeated vaccination (vaccinating the entire population multiple times a year) is not sufficient to prevent the emergence of novel immune-evading strains, if transmission rates remain high within the population. Thus, vaccines alone are incapable of slowing the pace of evolution of immune evasion, and vaccinal protection against severe and fatal outcomes for COVID-19 patients is therefore not assured.

Serological Survey in a university community after the fourth wave of COVID-19 in Senegal

“…Furthermore, we found no significant differences in IgM seroprevalences between vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. It would, therefore, appear that vaccination does not protect against the new variants and reinfections, as has already been demonstrated in numerous studies [58–60] indeed, WHO recommendations suggest that seasonal vaccination is necessary to protect against new variants [61].…”

Ethics of Nudging in the COVID-19 Crisis and the Necessary Return to the Principles of Shared Decision Making: A Critical Review

“…It is now clear that there can be no herd immunity from this vaccination and that children and adolescents do not benefit from this vaccination due to minimal to mild courses of COVID-19 [158]. Even at that time extraneous protection was clearly refuted by mass vaccination failure [260]. According to current data, this can be labeled as incorrect information.…”

“… It is now clear that there can be no herd immunity from this vaccination and that children and adolescents do not benefit from this vaccination due to minimal to mild courses of COVID-19 [ 158 ]. Even at that time extraneous protection was clearly refuted by mass vaccination failure [ 260 ]. May 18-19, 2021 (43rd wave) The authors are obviously aware of the lack of effectiveness of these vaccinations, as they point to contradictions in public communication that arise due to the discrepancy between the hoped-for and the actual lack of effectiveness of vaccines: "I get vaccinated to hug my grandchildren again" vs. "Vaccinated people have to keep their distance".…”

Alterations of SARS-CoV-2 Evolutionary Dynamics by Pharmaceutical Factors

“…[39] Despite apparent advantages in Israel's favor, Israel still suffered a higher per-capita COVID-19 death rate than that for Palestine. [40] Vaccination alone cannot stop the spread of new variants, [41] and evidence of selective pressures on the spike protein, [2,[42][43][44][45] the target antigen of vaccine-generated immune responses, has also been found. [46] Mechanistically, given that most vaccines solely encode the spike protein, mutations that alter the conformation of the spike protein may prevent antibodies from binding to earlier variants of spike protein [Figure 1].…”