Vaccine Prioritization for Effective Pandemic Response

Lee, Eva K.; Yuan, Fan; Pietz, Ferdinand; Benecke, Bernard; Burel, Greg

doi:10.1287/inte.2015.0814

Cited by 18 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Vaccinating children is effective, because they are most likely to transmit infections to their parents. Other studies explicitly differentiate between vulnerable groups and more active groups, who contribute to the spread of the disease (e.g., Dushoff et al, 2007;Matrajt and Longini Jr, 2010;Goldstein et al, 2012;Lee et al, 2015b). They often find that high transmission groups should be prioritized when vaccination takes place early in the outbreak.…”

Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Literature review: The vaccine supply chain

Duijzer

Jaarsveld

Dekker

2018

European Journal of Operational Research

184

146

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Vaccination is one of the most effective ways to prevent and/or control the outbreak of infectious diseases. This medical intervention also brings about many logistical questions. In the past years, the Operations Research/Operations Management community has shown a growing interest in the logistical aspects of vaccination. However, publications on vaccine logistics often focus on one specific logistical aspect. A broader framework is needed so that open research questions can be identified more easily and contributions are not overlooked. In this literature review, we combine the priorities of the World Health Organization for creating a flexible and robust vaccine supply chain with an Operations Research/Operations Management supply chain perspective. We propose a classification for the literature on vaccine logistics to structure this relatively new field, and identify promising research directions. We classify the literature into the following four components: (1) product, (2) production, (3) allocation, and (4) distribution. Within the supply chain classification, we analyze the decision problems for existing outbreaks versus sudden outbreaks and developing countries versus developed countries. We identify unique characteristics of the vaccine supply chain: high uncertainty in both supply and demand; misalignment of objectives and decentralized decision making between supplier, public health organization and end customer; complex political decisions concerning allocation and the crucial importance of deciding and acting in time.

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Section: Accepted Manuscriptmentioning

confidence: 99%

Literature review: The vaccine supply chain

Duijzer

Jaarsveld

Dekker

2018

European Journal of Operational Research

184

146

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“…They propose two formulations of the problem, a two-stage stochastic linear program and a newsvendor formulation, and test their solutions for the seasonal influenza in North Carolina. Lee et al (2015) propose a disease propagation model coupled with a vaccination queuing model which can be used to derive the optimal timing for switching from the prioritized vaccination strategy to the nonprioritized strategy during the course of the influenza pandemic. Nguyen and Carlson (2016) use a space-structured stochastic SIR model to derive the optimal vaccine allocation under different time of vaccination, interacting levels between cities, and vaccine capacities.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines Under Limited Supply

Chen

Simchi‐Levi

et al. 2020

Preprint

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This paper considers how to allocate Covid-19 vaccines to different age groups when limited vaccines are available over time. The disease dynamics is specified by an age-structured SAPHIRE model whose parameters are estimated by the standard least square method using the epidemic data from New York City. We derive optimal static allocation policies with different objectives under different amounts of daily available vaccines, and examine several dynamic allocation heuristics including old-first policy, infection-first policy, myopic policy, death-weighted myopic policy, and two-day myopic policy. For static policies, our numerical study shows that to minimize the total deaths, it is optimal to allocate limited vaccines to the oldest group first and then the younger group if there are capacities remaining. In contrast, to minimize the total confirmed cases, the optimal static policy allocates a considerable portion of vaccines to younger groups even if the daily available vaccines are very limited. The optimal static policies achieve a much smaller number of confirmed cases and deaths compared to two benchmark policies: a uniform allocation policy that allocates available vaccines equally to each age group, and a proportional allocation policy that allocates available vaccines proportionally to the population of each age group. For dynamic allocation policies, the myopic policy and the two-day myopic policy have similar performance and significantly outperforms the other dynamic heuristics and the static policies in terms of the confirmed cases and deaths.

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“…Making the vaccines of type 2 more attractive by increasing their efficacy, reducing their price or by advancing their availability will reduce the final size, as the original allocation is still feasible. Another interesting research direction is incorporating high-risk and high-transmission groups (e.g., Lee et al, 2015;Samii, Pibernik, Yadav, & Vereecke, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Duijzer, Van Jaarsveld, Wallinga, & Dekker, 2016;Keeling & Shattock, 2012;. To evaluate the effects of different vaccination strategies we focus on minimizing the final size, i.e., the proportion of people infected during the outbreak (e.g., Keeling & Shattock, 2012;Lee, Yuan, Pietz, Benecke, & Burel, 2015;Wang, de Véricourt, & Sun, 2009;Wu et al, 2007). An alternative performance criterion is the reproduction ratio R, which is related to the initial growth of infections (Diekmann, Heesterbeek, & Britton, 2013).…”

Section: Timing Of Vaccinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

The benefits of combining early aspecific vaccination with later specific vaccination

Duijzer

Jaarsveld

Dekker

2018

European Journal of Operational Research

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Timing is of crucial importance for successful vaccination. To avoid a large outbreak, vaccines are administered preferably as quickly as possible. However, in the early stages of an outbreak the information on the disease is limited and waiting with the intervention allows to design a more tailored vaccination strategy. In this paper we study the resulting tradeoff between timing of vaccination and the effectiveness of the response.We model disease progression using the seminal SIR model, and consider a decision maker who allocates her budget over two vaccine types: an early aspecific vaccine and a later specific vaccine. We analytically characterize the switching curve separating the parameter space region where the late specific vaccine is preferred from the region where the early aspecific type is preferred. More importantly, weshow that the decision maker should not only consider pure strategies, i.e., strategies which spend the entire budget on one of the types. Instead, she should suitably invest in both vaccine types to benefit both from the early response and from the good vaccine. We prove that at the switching curve, such a hybrid strategy is strictly better than either of the pure strategies due to the non-linear dynamics of epidemics. Numerical experiments show that the associated benefit of hybrid strategies over pure strategies in terms of reduction of the number of infections may be more than 50%. Such experiments also substantiate our restriction to two vaccine types.

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Vaccine Prioritization for Effective Pandemic Response

Cited by 18 publications

References 24 publications

Literature review: The vaccine supply chain

Literature review: The vaccine supply chain

Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines Under Limited Supply

The benefits of combining early aspecific vaccination with later specific vaccination

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