Vaccine demand driven by vaccine side effects: Dynamic implications for SIR diseases

d’Onofrio, Alberto; Manfredi, Piero

doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.02.007

Cited by 43 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…For example agents might perceive that vaccines are responsible for VSEs arising with long time delays [9], as might be the case with auto-immune diseases [18]. Moreover, delays of different nature, concerning the information on the spread of the disease, may involve both p(t) and M (t) [6].…”

Section: The Importance Of Time Delaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 The equilibrium E beh is equal to the endemic equilibrium of the model studied in [9], where, however, p is not a state variable.…”

Section: Endemic Equilibria and Their Stabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…the parents' decision not to vaccinate children after comparing the perceived risk of disease and the perceived risk of vaccine side effects [1,2,6]. Vaccination free riding [3,10,13,1,2,6,7,9,21,22,11] makes eradication impossible (unless special contact structures are considered [19]) and triggers stable oscillations in the infection prevalence. Previous studies on the impact of vaccination free riding on endemic infections have focused on scenarios where the vaccine demand is driven by the time changes in the perceived risk of disease, measured through the current (or past) infection prevalence.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the above-cited literature on VSEs we instead suggest that in industrialized countries, where the incidence of common vaccine preventable infections is very low, the available information on vaccine side effects might become the main driving force of vaccine demand. The only paper devoted to this issue is [9], where, however, vaccine demand was phenomenologically modelled as a decreasing function of the perceived risk of suffering a vaccine-associated side effect. The perceived risk of VSEs was in its turn evaluated by the public from available information on current and past trends of side effects attributed to the vaccine.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…the case of England and Wales, where due to the MMR scare [20], first dose measles uptake fell for several years from 94% to about 75%. Compared to [2] we also expand our basic model to include (a) nonlinear perceived costs of infection; (b) the possibility that the perceived costs of infection and vaccination are evaluated by the public using past values of state variables, for example due to information delay [7] or to the perception of long-term vaccine side effects [9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: An imitation-game approach

d’Onofrio

Manfredi

Poletti

2011

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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To cite this version:Alberto D'Onofrio, Piero Manfredi, Piero Poletti. The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: an imitation-game approach. Journal of Theoretical Biology, Elsevier, 2011, 273 (1) This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting galley proof before it is published in its final citable form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: an imitation-game approach AbstractWhen the incidence and prevalence of most common vaccine preventable childhood infectious diseases are constantly low, as is the case in many industrialized countries, the incidence of vaccine-associated side effects might become a key determinant in vaccine demand. We study an SIR transmission model with dynamic vaccine demand based on an imitation mechanism where the perceived risk of vaccination is modelled as a function of the incidence of vaccine side effects. The model shows some important differences compared to previous game dynamic models of vaccination, and allows noteworthy inferences as regards both the past and future lifetime of vaccination programmes. In particular it is suggested that a huge disproportion between the perceived risk of disease and vaccination is necessary in order to achieve high coverages. This disproportion is further increased in highly industrialised countries. Such considerations represent serious challenges for future vaccination programmes.

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Section: The Importance Of Time Delaysmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…1 The equilibrium E beh is equal to the endemic equilibrium of the model studied in [9], where, however, p is not a state variable.…”

Section: Endemic Equilibria and Their Stabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: An imitation-game approach

d’Onofrio

Manfredi

Poletti

2011

Journal of Theoretical Biology

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Coupling an individual adaptive‐decision model with a SIRV model of influenza vaccination reveals new insights for epidemic control

Yan

Cheke

Tang

2022

Statistics in Medicine

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Past seasonal influenza epidemics and vaccination experience may affect individuals' decisions on whether to be vaccinated or not, decisions that may be constantly reassessed in relation to recent influenza related experience. To understand the potentially complex interaction between experience and decisions and whether the vaccination rate is likely to reach a critical coverage level or not, we construct an adaptive-decision model. This model is then coupled with an influenza vaccination dynamics (SIRV) model to explore the interaction between individuals' decision-making and an influenza epidemic.Nonlinear least squares estimation is used to obtain the best-fit parameter values in the SIRV model based on data on new influenza-like illness (ILI) cases in Texas. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are then carried out to determine the impact of key parameters of the adaptive decision-making model on the ILI epidemic. The results showed that the necessary critical coverage rate of ILI vaccination could not be reached by voluntary vaccination. However, it could be reached in the fourth year if mass media reports improved individuals' memory of past vaccination experience. Individuals' memory of past vaccination experience, the proportion with histories of past vaccinations and the perceived cost of vaccination are important factors determining whether an ILI epidemic can be effectively controlled or not. Therefore, health authorities should guide people to improve their memory of past vaccination experience through media reports, publish timely data on annual vaccination proportions and adjust relevant measures to appropriately reduce vaccination perceived cost, in order to effectively control an ILI epidemic. K E Y W O R D Sadaptive-decision model, critical coverage rate, influenza-like illness (ILI), SIRV, vaccination INTRODUCTIONInfluenza, an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by the influenza virus, brings serious harm to human health. Its antigenicity changes readily and the virus spreads rapidly, so there are seasonal epidemics every year. 1,2 According to

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Behavioral Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: An Overview

Bauch

d’Onofrio

Manfredi

2012

Modeling the Interplay Between Human Behavior and the Spread of Infectious Diseases

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The focus of the growing discipline of behavioral epidemiology (BE) of infectious diseases is on individual behavior as a key determinant of infection trajectories. This overview departs from the central, but static, role of human behavior in traditional mathematical models of infection to motivate the importance of including behavior into epidemiological models. Our aim is threefold. First, we attempt to motivate the historical and cultural background underpinning the BE revolution, focusing on the issue of rational opposition to vaccines as a natural endpoint of the changed relation between man and disease in modern industrialized countries. Second, we review those contributions, from both mathematical epidemiology and economics, that forerun the current "epidemic" of studies on BE. Last, we offer a more detailed overview of the current epidemic phase of BE studies and, still motivated by the issue of immunization choices, introduce some baseline ideas and models.

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Vaccine demand driven by vaccine side effects: Dynamic implications for SIR diseases

Cited by 43 publications

References 23 publications

The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: An imitation-game approach

The impact of vaccine side effects on the natural history of immunization programmes: An imitation-game approach

Coupling an individual adaptive‐decision model with a SIRV model of influenza vaccination reveals new insights for epidemic control

Behavioral Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases: An Overview

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