V -, U -, L - or W-shaped recovery after COVID? Insights from an Agent Based Model

Sharma, Dhruv; Bouchaud, Jean‐Philippe; Gualdi, Stanislao; Tarzia, Marco; Zamponi, Francesco

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3627505

Cited by 11 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…After this, non-linear saturation effects take over to quell the dynamics, and the system flows back towards equilibrium before the next crisis appears. These acute endogenous crises are one of the most interesting aspects of our model; they also appear in other Agent Based Models, see [26,50] where they result from a generic synchronisation mechanism, see [51].…”

Section: Intermittent Crisesmentioning

confidence: 84%

Tâtonnement, Approach to Equilibrium and Excess Volatility in Firm Networks

et al. 2020

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Section: Intermittent Crisesmentioning

confidence: 84%

Tâtonnement, Approach to Equilibrium and Excess Volatility in Firm Networks

et al. 2020

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“…There is widespread uncertainty about the economic effects of the crisis [57]. Some authors argue that the recovery will be similar to that which occurred in China between 2005 and 2013, following the tendency of L-shaped growth [58].…”

Section: Economic Growth In Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19: Turning a Threat into an Opportunity for the Circular Economy

Doussoulin¹

2021

Circular Economy - Recent Advances, New Perspectives and Applications

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The current crisis dominates everything from health to day-to-day life. But it will pass over within a relatively short space of time and the economic recession seems likely to reverse the long-standing pattern. Given the gravity of the circumstances, nations have been constrained to undertake unusual approach arrangements. This article proposes a framework of the COVID-19 effect following analysis and comparison of the most prominent concepts of the public health and circular economy. Our paper helps to identify the positions of each of these concepts with regard to public health, environmental sustainability and economic growth. This study enriches the literature on the environmental sciences and public health by providing analysis of the effects of the policies. Finally, this article recognizes that there must be local action priorities that allow for small and sequential wins in economic, health and environmental aspects in the territory.

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“…The first agent-based model under consideration is the Mark-0 model of Gualdi et al (2015) that was expanded in Gualdi et al (2017) and Bouchaud et al (2018), with a recent application to the COVID crisis by Sharma et al (2020). 5 The Mark-0 model is a simplified medium-scale hybrid-ABM of a closed economy with an aggregate household and heterogeneous firms.…”

Section: A Simple Agent-based Model: Mark-0mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This allows us to compare our analysis of key parameter directions and the phase-space exploration algorithm (see Section 5) to previously studied and explored phases. We use the most recent version of Sharma et al (2020), but exclude the central bank, which leaves a fourteen-dimensional parameter space (P = 14). Table 1 provides an overview of the P = 14 parameters that we consider in the Mark-0 model, in decreasing order of relevance to this paper.…”

Section: A Simple Agent-based Model: Mark-0mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Exploration of the Parameter Space in Macroeconomic Agent-Based Models

Naumann-Woleske¹,

Knicker²,

Benzaquen³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Agent-Based Models (ABM) are computational scenario-generators, which can be used to predict the possible future outcomes of the complex system they represent. To better understand the robustness of these predictions, it is necessary to understand the full scope of the possible phenomena the model can generate. Most often, due to high-dimensional parameter spaces, this is a computationally expensive task. Inspired by ideas coming from systems biology, we show that for multiple macroeconomic models, including an agent-based model and several Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, there are only a few stiff parameter combinations that have strong effects, while the other sloppy directions are irrelevant. This suggest an algorithm that efficiently explores the space of parameters by primarily moving along the stiff directions. We apply our algorithm to a medium-sized agent-based model, and show that it recovers all possible dynamics of the unemployment rate. The application of this method to Agent-based Models may lead to a more thorough and robust understanding of their features, and provide enhanced parameter sensitivity analyses. Several promising paths for future research are discussed.

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V -, U -, L - or W-shaped recovery after COVID? Insights from an Agent Based Model

Cited by 11 publications

References 15 publications

Tâtonnement, Approach to Equilibrium and Excess Volatility in Firm Networks

Tâtonnement, Approach to Equilibrium and Excess Volatility in Firm Networks

COVID-19: Turning a Threat into an Opportunity for the Circular Economy

Exploration of the Parameter Space in Macroeconomic Agent-Based Models

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