UV Index Forecasting under the Influence of Desert Dust: Evaluation against Surface and Satellite-Retrieved Data

Abstract

Human exposure to healthy doses of UV radiation is required for vitamin D synthesis, but exposure to excessive UV irradiance leads to several harmful impacts ranging from premature wrinkles to dangerous skin cancer. However, for countries located in the global dust belt, accurate estimation of the UV irradiance is challenging due to a strong impact of desert dust on incoming solar radiation. In this work, a UV Index forecasting capability is presented, specifically developed for dust-rich environments, that combines the use of ground-based measurements of broadband irradiances UVA (320-400 nm) and UVB (280-315 nm), NASA OMI Aura satellite-retrieved data and the meteorology-chemistry mesoscale model WRF-Chem. The forecasting ability of the model is evaluated for clear sky days as well as during the influence of dust storms in Doha, Qatar. The contribution of UV radiation to the total incoming global horizontal irradiance (GHI) ranges between 5% and 7% for UVA and 0.1% and 0.22% for UVB. The UVI forecasting performance of the model is quite encouraging with an absolute average error of less than 6% and a correlation coefficient of 0.93. In agreement with observations, the model predicts that the UV Index at local noontime can drop from 10-11 on clear sky days to approximately 6-7 during typical dusty conditions in the Arabian Peninsula-an effect similar to the presence of extensive cloud cover.Atmosphere 2020, 11, 96 2 of 17 photokeratitis (inflammation of the cornea), and suppression of the immune system [1,[3][4][5]. Thus, it is important for people to control their exposure to UV radiation [1,6].The UV radiation on the Earth's surface is largely determined by the solar zenith angle, clouds, total ozone column, surface albedo, aerosols, earth-sun distance, and altitude [7]. Clouds poorly absorb UV radiation and in general, scatter UV radiation into the atmosphere [8,9]. Stratospheric ozone (ozone layer) predominantly absorbs UV radiation at wavelengths below 320 nm [10]. The extent of reflectivity from a surface affects UV surface irradiance with higher surface albedo enhancing the net UV surface irradiance due to multiple scattering of the reflected irradiance with the atmosphere. For example, a surface covered by snow (with albedo of 0.8) will increase UV irradiance at 320 nm by 1.5 times compared to snow-free, low albedo conditions [11]. Aerosols also affect the incoming UV irradiance. They usually decrease UV irradiance reaching the surface by scattering and absorption. A measurement campaign in Greece showed that UV irradiance decreased by 5-35% due to aerosols [12], and similar numbers of annual average aerosol attenuation of UV irradiance were obtained around the globe [13]. Desert dust intrusions also affect UV irradiance with differences larger than 30% in cloudless conditions in Santiago de Chile [14,15]. These differences in UV irradiance highlight the need for ground-based measurements to account for the attenuation of UV radiation in the troposphere which are not accounted for in satellite derived es...

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