Utilizing the Available Open-Source Remotely Sensed Data in Assessing the Wildfire Ignition and Spread Capacities of Vegetated Surfaces in Romania

Abstract

We bring a practical and comprehensive GIS-based framework to utilize freely available remotely sensed datasets to assess wildfire ignition probability and spreading capacities of vegetated landscapes. The study area consists of the country-level scale of the Romanian territory, characterized by a diversity of vegetated landscapes threatened by climate change. We utilize the Wildfire Ignition Probability/Wildfire Spreading Capacity Index (WIPI/WSCI). WIPI/WSCI models rely on a multi-criteria data mining procedure assessing the study area’s social, environmental, geophysical, and fuel properties based on open access remotely sensed data. We utilized the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to weigh each indexing criterion’s impact factor and assess the model’s overall sensitivity. Introducing ROC analysis at an earlier stage of the workflow elevated the final Area Under the Curve (AUC) of WIPI from 0.705 to 0.778 and WSCI from 0.586 to 0.802. The modeling results enable discussion on the vulnerability of protected areas and the exposure of man-made structures to wildfire risk. Our study shows that within the wildland–urban interface of Bucharest’s metropolitan area, there is a remarkable building stock of healthcare, residential and educational functions, which are significantly exposed and vulnerable to wildfire spreading risk.

Forest Fire Spread Hazard and Landscape Pattern Characteristics in the Mountainous District, Beijing

“…HH (high-high) cluster townships were distributed in the northwest of Fangshan and central and western Mentougou. (3) The correlation analysis between the spatial pattern of forest landscapes and the forest fire spread hazard showed that the forest fire spread hazard was influenced mainly by landscape diversity (SHDI and PRD), landscape aggregation (AI, CONTAG, and PD), and landscape area (TA).…”

“…The forest fire spread hazard refers to the possibility of a forest fire spreading (assuming that a forest fire has already begun) [1][2][3][4][5][6]. Under the influence of climate change and land use changes, the occurrence probability and intensity of extreme fires have increased significantly [7][8][9][10][11][12][13].…”

Applying a Complex Integrated Method for Mapping and Assessment of the Degraded Ecosystem Hotspots from Romania

“…Following the hotspot analysis, it was identified that the largest degraded surfaces are the coastal ones (49.80%), followed by the grassland ecosystems In the case of the models that targeted the ecosystems of forests, caves and rivers, lower values were calculated but located above the limit of 0.800, considered a threshold value in order to frame the results in the category of strong and moderate models [74]. However, these values are justified, taking into account the diversity of the causes of degradation as well as their uneven distribution at the national level [75]. The model with a low validation rate was the coastal ecosystems model for which improvements can be made in future studies, aimed at lowering the distinction between the distribution of disturbing factors on land and water and their dispersion with distance from shore [76].…”

Critical Success Factors of Small and Medium Wildfire Effects on Soil Erosion Dynamics: The Case of 2021 Megafires in Greece

“…In Southern Europe, the Mediterranean-type climate with the prolonged dry and warm summer period, the flammable vegetation, the complex topography, as well as human activities, favors both the ignition and the spread of wildfires. Furthermore, warmer and drier conditions in the Euro-Mediterranean region are expected over the next decades under future climate projections (Cos et al, 2022;Hysa et al, 2021;Hysa & Spalevic, 2020;Zittis et al, 2019;Nemeth, 2015). Hence, there will be increases in fire extent, intensity and duration of the fire season (Amatulli et al, 2013;Mitsopoulos et al, 2016;Kotroni et al, 2020) leading to an increased likelihood of large wildfires, known as megafires.…”