Background
Increased triglycerides (TG) levels and decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) levels are risk factors for type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, previous studies reached inconsistent results between ratio of TG-to-HDL-C (TG/HDL-C) and T2D risk, and it was unclear whether the association was modified by gender, body mass index, or fasting status.
Methods
Blood biomarkers, including TG and HDL-C levels, were assayed among 571 T2D cases and 571 controls in a case-control study nested within Singapore Chinese Health Study. Participants were free of diagnosed diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer at blood collections (1999-2004). Incident self-reported T2D cases were identified at follow-up II interview (2006-2010). Controls were 1:1 matched for age, sex, dialect group and date of blood collection. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to compute the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) between lipid profile and T2D risk with adjustment for diabetes risk factors.
Results
The OR (95% CI) of T2D was 1.70 (1.39-2.09) per 1-SD increment in TG, and 1.72 (1.37-2.17) per 1-SD increment in TG/HDL-C ratio. The relations were stronger among female than male (P for interaction = 0.028 and 0.017, respectively), and stronger among lean participants (<23 kg/m2) than their overweight/obese counterparts (P for interaction = 0.051 and 0.046, respectively). TG and TG/HDL-C ratio improved T2D prediction with similar magnitude.
Conclusions
TG and TG/HDL-C ratio are independent risk factors for incident T2D, and they confer greater risk in women and in lean participants. TG/HDL-C ratio is not a better predictor of diabetes than TG alone.