Utility of Occupancy Models with Environmental DNA (eDNA) from Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary

Abstract

Adjacent to the spectacular, rugged coastline bordering the Olympic Peninsula of Washington State, Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS) encompasses 8257 km 2 of coastal waters that support one of North America’s most productive marine ecosystems. These rich waters support important recreational, commercial and subsistence fisheries for Washington state and four sovereign tribal governments: the Quinault Indian Nation and the Makah, Quileute and Hoh Tribes. Given its ecological, cultural and economic significance, managers from OCNMS are tasked with monitoring and management towards conserving the area's ecological integrity. The development of metabarcoding with environmental DNA (eDNA) as an effective freshwater monitoring tool has potential applications in marine systems, but the statistical analysis and the interpretation of those eDNA results are still under development. One promising strategy to analyze eDNA is through the use of occupancy models. Occupancy models enable us to calculate probabilities of detection from each taxon sequenced and are designed to work with presence-absence data. To inform our long term monitoring design of this coastal ecosystem, we collected 44 eDNA samples at nine of OCNMS’ long term mooring sites in 2019 and tested four different molecular markers for species reported and taxonomic richness. Additionally, we assessed occupancy models for use with eDNA to estimate the number of samples required to accurately predict the presence of a species. Occupancy models show great promise for use in eDNA studies provided there is sufficient replication; additionally, the choice of molecular marker strongly influences a taxa’s probability of detection.