Using the Multiactor-Approach in Glowa-Danube to Simulate Decisions for the Water Supply Sector Under Conditions of Global Climate Change

Abstract

Glowa-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) is an interdisciplinary project that aims to develop integrated strategies and tools for water and land use management in the upper Danube catchment (Germany, Austria ∼77,000 km 2 ). The project is one of five within the Glowa research program (www.glowa.org) dealing with Global Change effects on the water cycle in six meso-scale catchments (up to 100,000 km 2 ) in Central Europe, West Africa and the Middle East. In the Glowa-Danube project, 16 natural science and socio-economic simulation models are integrated in the coupled simulation system Danubia. This article describes the underlying concept and implementation of WaterSupply, a multiactor-based model of the water supply sector with a focus on water resource utilization and distribution of individual water supply companies. Within Danubia, WaterSupply represents the link between water supply and demand, where the former is simulated by a groundwater and a surface water model and the latter by water consumption models of four different sectors (domestic, industrial, agricultural and tourism). WaterSupply interprets the quantitative state of water resources for defined spatial and temporal R. Barthel et al. units according to sustainability requirements and assesses the state of resources in relation to present water supply schemes and the dynamics of user demand. WaterSupply then seeks both to optimize the resource use of supply companies and to identify critical regions for which further adaptation of the water supply scheme will become necessary under changing climatic conditions. In this article, a brief description of the Glowa-Danube project and the integrated simulation system Danubia is followed by a short presentation of the DeepActor framework, which provides a common conceptual and technical basis for the socio-economic simulation models of Glowa-Danube. The main body of the article is devoted to the concept, the implementation and simulation results of WaterSupply. Results from different scenario calculations demonstrate the capabilities and the potential fields of application of the model.

What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

“…However, it is likely, that the water demand will also change in future. For example in southern Germany detailed integrated simulations of changing water demands and landuse and the respective feedbacks on groundwater levels have been presented by Barthel et al (2008), Barthel et al (2010) and Soboll et al (2011). For Switzerland, Fuhrer andJasper (2009) have shown that increasing temperatures will likely lead to increasing irrigation demand and thus increasing pressure on groundwater resources.…”

A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects

“…Glowa-Danube, ATEAM) but often do not highlight participatory modeling in the paper titles, although they may well incorporate a level of participation. (see, Schröter et al 2005;Barthel et al 2010). As can be derived from the current and previous reviews, different branches begin to emerge and be established.…”

“…Participatory strategies have evolved particularly in integrated water management (e.g., Pahl-Wostl and Hare 2004;Giupponi et al 2006;Barthel et al 2010).…”

Global change impacts on the Upper Danube Catchment (Central Europe): a study of participatory modeling

“…Before the third phase of the GD project the WaterSupply model was ''complete'' from the modelers' point of view (as published in Barthel et al 2010). This model version and the results from the scenario simulations were presented to the stakeholders during the various activities described in ''Third phase: a structured, externally moderated stakeholder dialogue''.…”