Using the Delphi process to gather information from a Bald Eagle expert panel

Using a structured decision analysis to evaluate bald eagle vital signs monitoring in Southwest Alaska National Parks

“…We convened an expert panel of 17 scientists, managers, and personnel from the National Park Service, US Fish and Wildlife Service, and South Dakota Game, Fish, & Parks to participate in a Delphi Process, where we identified important stressors for bald eagles in Alaska and linked stressors to monitoring metrics (Kolstrom et al, 2020;Linstone & Turoff, 2002). We compiled this expert panel using a snowball process.…”

“…We queried the panel about long-term bald eagle monitoring in Southwest Alaska National Parks and gathered information about the cost, effort, reliability, and sensitivity of monitoring metrics commonly used to monitor bald eagle populations (Kolstrom et al, 2020).…”

“…We then evaluated the consequences of individual monitoring metrics based on the four means objectives. A comprehensive list of monitoring metrics was formed through structured expert elicitation, the Delphi Process, that uses surveys to combine expert opinion derived from a panel of Federal managers and eagle experts (Kolstrom et al, 2020). Using information collected through the Delphi Process and a consequence table, the comprehensive list of metrics was narrowed to the six best-performing metrics based on cost, effort, reliability, and sensitivity.…”

“…In this decision context, all defined objectives are means objectives to the fundamental objective of optimizing the long-term bald eagle monitoring program for Southwest Alaska National Parks. A multi-agency panel of scientists and managers has already defined means objectives and a suite of potential monitoring metrics to use when evaluating the monitoring decision though a Delphi Process (Kolstrom, Wilson, & Gigliotti, 2020;Linstone & Turoff, 2002). These means objectives were quantified using responses from the Delphi questionnaires (Kolstrom et al, 2020).…”

“…A multi-agency panel of scientists and managers has already defined means objectives and a suite of potential monitoring metrics to use when evaluating the monitoring decision though a Delphi Process (Kolstrom, Wilson, & Gigliotti, 2020;Linstone & Turoff, 2002). These means objectives were quantified using responses from the Delphi questionnaires (Kolstrom et al, 2020). Now, by considering the means objectives, we identify the optimal decision about monitoring metrics that can be used in the long-term monitoring program by using a linear value modeling approach.…”