Using the Contrast Boundary Concentration of LST for the Earthquake Approach Assessment in Turkey, 6–8 February 2023

Abstract

Land surface temperature (LST) variations and anomalies associated with tectonic plate movements have been documented before large earthquakes. In this work, we propose that spatially extended and dynamic linear zones of high temperature anomalies at the Earth’s surface coinciding with faults in the Earth’s crust may be used as a predictor of an approaching earthquake. LST contrast boundary concentration maps are suggested to be a possible indicator for analyzing temperature changes before and after seismic sequences. Here, we analyze the concentration of LST contrast boundaries estimated from Landsat 8–9 data for the East Anatolian Fault Zone in the vicinity of epicenters of the destructive earthquakes with magnitudes up to 7.8 Mw that occurred in February 2023. A spatial relationship between earthquake epicenters and the maximum concentration of LST boundaries at azimuths of 0° and 90° was found to strengthen as the earthquake approaches and weaken after it. It was found that 92% of epicenters are located at up to 5 km distance from zones of maximum LST boundary concentration. The evidence presented in this work supports the idea that LST may provide valuable information for seismic hazard assessment before large earthquakes.