Using system simulation to model the impact of human error in a maritime system

Harrald, John R.; Mazzuchi, TA; Spahn, John E.; Dorp, Rene Van; Merrick, Jason R. W.; Shrestha, Surya Narayan; Grabowski, Martha

doi:10.1016/s0925-7535(98)00048-4

Cited by 96 publications

(63 citation statements)

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“…However, the authority intends to improve the system including the employment of advanced analytical tools and integration of the SOS with other systems. The literature recognizes the issues concerning accident models and the need to develop new models and to update or improve existing ones (Huang et al, 2004;Hollnagel, 2002;Harrald et al, 1998). Such models are a necessary foundation for accident analysis, prediction, and prevention.…”

Section: Final Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several traditional accident models are based on theories that may not take account of complex systems and phenomena. Therefore, significant progress in accident analysis for complex systems requires innovative approaches starting from a completely different theoretical foundation (Harrald et al, 1998).…”

Section: Final Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The terms "marine accident and incident" and "marine casualty" denote undesirable events in connection with ship operations (IMO, 1996). An accident is an undesired event (Hollnagel, 2008), Swiss cheese model (2) (Reason, 1990), framework for maritime risk assessment (3) (Harrald et al, 1998). that results in adverse consequences, for example injury, loss of life, economic loss, environmental damage, and damage to or loss of property (Harrald et al, 1998;Grabowski et al, 2010). Accidents are due to an unexpected combination of conditions or events (Hollnagel et al, 2006).…”

Section: Accidents Risks and Risk Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Most accident models are sequential viewing accidents as a sequential chain of events that occur in a specific order (Harrald et al, 1998;Hollnagel, 2008;Leveson, 2004;Nikolaos et al, 2004;Van Drop et al, 2001;Özgecan and Ulusç u, 2009;Celik et al, 2010). Three typical sequential models, namely the Bowtie model, Swiss cheese model, and a framework for maritime risk assessment, are presented in Fig.…”

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…2, Model 2). Harrald et al (1998) described accidents by means of a six stage causal chain: root or basic causes and immediate causes, triggering incidents, accidents, consequences and impacts (Fig. 2, Model 3).…”

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents

Mullai

Paulsson

2011

Accident Analysis & Prevention

104

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Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Mullai, A., & Paulsson, U. (2011). A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents. Accident; analysis and prevention, 43(4), 1590 -1603 . DOI: 10.1016 /j.aap.2011 General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights.• Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research.• You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain • You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal Take down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim. b s t r a c tThe purpose of this paper was to design a conceptual model for analysis of marine accidents. The model is grounded on large amounts of empirical data, i.e. the Swedish Maritime Administration database, which was thoroughly studied. This database contains marine accidents organized by ship and variable. The majority of variables are non-metric and some have never been analyzed because of the large number of values. Summary statistics were employed in the data analysis. In order to develop a conceptual model, the database variables were clustered into eleven main categories or constructs, which were organized according to their properties and connected with the path diagram of relationships. For demonstration purposes, one non-metric and five metric variables were selected, namely fatality, ship's properties (i.e. age, gross register tonnage, and length), number of people on board, and marine accidents. These were analyzed using the structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. The combined prediction power of the 'ship's properties' and 'number of people on board' independent variables accounted for 65% of the variance of the fatality. The model development was largely based on the data contained in the Swedish database. However, as this database shares a number of variables in common with other databases in the region and the world, the model presented in this paper could be applied to other datasets. The model has both theoretical and practical values. Recommendations for improvements in the database are also suggested.

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Section: Final Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Final Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accidents Risks and Risk Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Accident Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents

Mullai

Paulsson

2011

Accident Analysis & Prevention

104

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A systems approach to managing oil transportation risk in Prince William Sound

et al. 2000

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The grounding of the Exxon Valdez caused public and government concern about the safety of oil transportation in the Prince William Sound, Alaska. As a result, a large number of proposals and recommendations were made to improve safety, but stakeholders could not achieve a consensus on their effectiveness at reducing risk. A steering committee representing all local stakeholders, including the Prince William Sound Shipping Companies, the Prince William Sound Regional Citizens Advisory Committee, the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation, and the U.S. Coast Guard, was formed to address the issue of risk intervention effectiveness. The Steering Committee hired a team of consultants who were charged with assessing the current risk of accidents involving oil tankers operating in the Prince William Sound and evaluating measures aimed at reducing this risk. The team created a detailed model of the Prince William Sound oil transportation system, using system simulation, data analysis, and expert judgment, capable of answering the majority of the questions posed by the Steering Committee. The success of the project has been demonstrated by the acceptance of the major recommendations by all stakeholders and has, to date, resulted in multi-million dollar investments.

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Simulator Training

Manning

2017

Encyclopedia of Maritime and Offshore Engineering

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When one reflects on simulator training in the maritime environment, initial thoughts often turn to large, expensive bridge and engine room simulators. However, when one steps back and views the training requirements of the professional mariner, one sees that nearly every aspect of his/her training involves the use of simulators. Simulators and their use have been part of maritime education for decades. The role of the simulator is to place students into a scenario, which they may face and provide learning outcomes on completion of the task. Ships and offshore platforms are now very complex places to work. They require an interface with crews, who have to be highly trained and qualified in a number of specialties. In this modern era of shipping, where crews are faced with reduced manning, quick turnaround times, and lack of sleep, the opportunities to carry out onboard training on the vessel or on an offshore platform are curtailed. Simulator training is a vital tool when training cadets and senior officers in nontechnical skills and allows lecturers to give immediate constructive feedback to students.

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Using system simulation to model the impact of human error in a maritime system

Cited by 96 publications

References 4 publications

A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents

A grounded theory model for analysis of marine accidents

A systems approach to managing oil transportation risk in Prince William Sound

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