Using Statistical Downscaling of GCM Simulations to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Drought Conditions in the Northwest of Morocco

Abstract

The present study focus on a statistical approach for improving climate prediction for the region of the Bouregreg basin in the northwest of Morocco. The aim was to examine the past drought conditions and to find their trend under climate change conditions. Past and future drought conditions were assessed using Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) by considering the emission scenarios A2 and B2 for three periods 2014-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2099. A statistical downscaling method was applied to the HadCM3 outputs for the station of Rabat to simulate the projected changes in precipitation and temperature. Results shows that annual precipitations under A2 scenario increased by 4.72 %, 4.75% and 4.50 %

Statistical Downscaling of Precipitation and Temperature Using Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator in Zambia: A Case of Mount Makulu Agriculture Research Station

“…The model was developed in 1999 and was the first coupled atmosphere-ocean which did not require flux adjustments [49]. It also has the capability to capture the time-dependent fingerprint of historical climate change in response to natural and anthropogenic forcings [45] and this has made it an important tool in studies concerning the detection and attribution of past climate changes.…”

“…The Hadley Centre Couple Model version 3 (HadCM3) and Bergen Climate Model Version 2 (BCCR-BCM2) models were used in the IPCC Third and Fourth Assessments and also contributed to the Fifth Assessment Reports [45]. These two models differ in spatial resolution power, design institute, predictability of atmospheric variables, and predictability of oceanic variables [46] [47].…”

Assessment of performance of the regional climate model (RegCM4.6) to simulate winter rainfall in the north of Morocco: The case of Tangier-Tétouan-Al-Hociema Region

“…Where the vulnerability of the populations to extreme hydrological events is significant [ 11 , 12 ]. Recently due to the global phenomena of global warming, Morocco with an arid environment has experienced a dramatic change in its climate, which had a significant impact on important sectors [ [11] , [12] , [13] ], such as agriculture, water resources, and the overall economy [ 14 ]. High Moroccan precipitation tends to coincide with large negative anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation (ONA).…”

“…High Moroccan precipitation tends to coincide with large negative anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation (ONA). Moreover, previous research on precipitation in Morocco has mainly focused on the inter-annual variability and the links with large-scale circulation such as the NAO index, to make future projections for water resource-related problems [ [14] , [15] , [16] , [17] , [18] ]. Therefore, the study of rainfall distribution and future trends is an essential task for better planning and managing water resources, especially in a region where the vulnerability of the populations to extreme hydrological events is high [ 11 , 12 ].…”