Using Spatial Modeling for Identifying Determinants Influencing Crash Estimate: Case Study of Hamedan, Iran

Abstract

Road crashes are a major cause of fatalities worldwide, posing significant challenges for road-safety experts in selecting appropriate crash-frequency estimation models. This study introduces localized safety performance functions (C-SPFs), which explore the spatial variation of crash frequency and the spatial correlation between dependent variables. The exploratory spatial regression method is employed to identify optimal spatial associations. The study further predicts crashes using geographically weighted Poisson regression (GWPR) and generalized Poisson regression. Results indicate that C-SPFs offer greater accuracy than do models calibrated solely on annual average daily traffic. Moreover, the proposed model is especially relevant for jurisdictions facing higher heavy-vehicle traffic and frequent crashes. The development of C-SPFs and the use of GWPR provide valuable tools for policymakers and road-safety experts in enhancing crash-frequency estimation accuracy. Implementing these techniques can aid in prioritizing safety measures and countermeasures, especially in regions with significant heavy-vehicle traffic and crash occurrences. Additionally, the integration of spatial-analysis techniques and localized models can lead to more effective transportation planning and targeted road-safety interventions, ultimately contributing to reducing the burden of road crashes on a global scale.