Using sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to improve predictions of broad-scale forest development

Dale, Virginia H.; Jager, Henriëtte I.; Gardner, Robert H.; Rosen, Aaron E.

doi:10.1016/0304-3800(88)90055-5

Cited by 33 publications

(13 citation statements)

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“…In the past, many applications of the JABOWA model and modifications of it tacitly assumed that the model is not significantly sensitive to errors in assumptions or the parameter estimations (since these are not usually tested). Recently, some papers have focused directly on the sensitivity issue (Dale et aL, 1988;Moore, 1989;Harrison and Shugart, 1990). The widespread use of this kind of model makes investigation of the sensitivity to parameter estimation error more and more important.…”

Section: Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest response to climatic change: Effects of parameter estimation and choice of weather patterns on the reliability of projections

Botkin

Nisbet

1992

Climatic Change

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Computer projections suggest that forests may respond dramatically and rapidly to global warming, with significant and readily observable changes in forests of mid-latitudes occurring by the turn of the century or shortly thereafter. These results raise the question: how reliable are the projections? Sensitivity analyses reported in this paper suggest that projections of forest response to global warming will be generally insensitive to errors of 10% in parameter estimation. Even where projections are sensitive quantitatively, they are not changed in timing. Projections are insensitive to the choice of baseline weather records, unless the warmest or coldest decades of the 20th century are used as baselines.

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Section: Future Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest response to climatic change: Effects of parameter estimation and choice of weather patterns on the reliability of projections

Botkin

Nisbet

1992

Climatic Change

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“…For example, Gardner et al (1989) used a simple model to predict animal movement across a heterogeneous landscape when the spatial scale was varied in different ways. Simulation models can also be subjected to uncertainty analyses that detect errors that occur as a result of extrapolating from a few plots to a region (Dale et al 1988). Models can also be used to examine phenomena on either side of a critical threshold in order to develop procedures to translate predictions reliably across scales .…”

Section: Translating Across Scalesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting across scales: Theory development and testing

1989

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Landscape ecologists deal with processes that occur at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. The ability to make predictions at more than one level of resolution requires identification of the processes of interest and parameters that affect this process at different scales, the development of rules to translate information across scales, and the ability to test these predictions at the relevant spatial and temporal scales. This paper synthesizes discussions from a workshop on 'Predicting Across Scales: Theory Development and Testing' that was held to discuss current research on scaling and to identify key research issues.

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“…Bartell et al (1986) found that the relative bias of an aquatic model was low but varied with time, while the variance of model predictions underestimated the variability of the data. Comparisons of a forest succession model with forest inventory data (Dale et al, 1989) were similar: the relative bias of model predictions was low, but the high variability of the data was underestimated by the model. Dale et al recommended that the uncertainties associated with the measured values should be reduced before significant efforts are made to improve model predictions.…”

Section: Methods Of Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 85%

Impact Models to Assess Regional Acidification

Kämäri¹

1990

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ForewordSensitive receptors such as soil and fresh bodies of water are at the end of a long chain of events in the process of regional acidification. This chain begins thousands of kilometers upwind at the emitters of acidifying pollutants. The topics covered in this book are important in the study of regional acidification for two reasons. First, it is important to assess the sensitivity of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to the deposition of acidifying pollutants. If the sensitivity of an ecosystem is known, then international control strategies can be developed to reduce deposition in the receptor areas of greatest importance. This is an important factor in designing the most effective strategies because of the very high costs of reducing emissions of acidifying pollutants.Second, it is important to be able to predict changes in ecosystems for decades into the future, whether it be an improvement owing to decreases in acidifying emissions or, alas, a further deterioration because control strategies are nonexistent or inadequate. In either event, it is important to be able to judge the results of our actions.Decision makers tend to be mistrustful of models unless they can judge their reliability. The application and testing of the models in Part III of this book cover, therefore, an important facet of model building.This book is an ideal companion to another book that is forthcoming from the Transboundary Air Pollution Project at IIASA: The RAINS Model of Acidification: Science and Strategies in Europe. The latter book is a description of the development and use of the Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation (RAINS) model, an integrated assessment model for developing and determining control strategies to reduce regional acidification in Europe. Much of the research described in this book forms part of the foundation of the RAINS model. These two books cover a great deal of the present knowledge about assessing and dealing with a very important environmental problem in Europeregional acidification. R. W. Shaw Leader Transboundary Air Pollution Project Introduction Acidification of the EnvironmentAcidification of the environment is, like most recent environmental problems, a consequence of change in the natural cycles of elements. Some chemical substances that during millions of years leaked from the biosphere are again being emitted to the atmosphere. Owing to these anthropogenic emissions, fluxes of acidifying compounds to the soils and waters have increased manyfold since preindustrial times.The whole problem of air pollution is transboundary in nature; its geographic dimensions are difficult to define. Pollution sources are scattered in many countries, the consequences extending far away. Acidifying sulfur and nitrogen oxides can persist in the air up to a few days, long enough to be transported hundreds or even thousands of kilometers from the place they were emitted. During this transit time, gaseous pollutants undergo a complicated chemical conversion into nitric and sulfuric acids, which ar...

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Using sensitivity and uncertainty analyses to improve predictions of broad-scale forest development

Cited by 33 publications

References 10 publications

Forest response to climatic change: Effects of parameter estimation and choice of weather patterns on the reliability of projections

Forest response to climatic change: Effects of parameter estimation and choice of weather patterns on the reliability of projections

Predicting across scales: Theory development and testing

Impact Models to Assess Regional Acidification

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