Using Secondary Cases to Characterize the Severity of an Emerging or Re-Emerging Infection

The effect of variation of individual infectiousness on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in households

“…Second, the recruitment methods among studies are different. This may affect the comparability of the results, although all index cases are laboratory-confirmed in all studies ( 32 ). Finally, most of our identified studies were conducted in the period of circulation of ancestral strains, and therefore the identified infectiousness variation may not be directly applicable to other variants.…”

“…Most studies covered the cases from January to November 2020, which was dominated by ancestral strains, except for Layan et We then developed a statistical model to quantify the degree and the impact of variation of infectiousness of cases on transmission dynamics. The individual-based household transmission model describes the probability of infection of household contacts as depending on the time since infection in other infected persons in the household, so that infections from outside the household (community infections), or infections via other household contacts rather than the index case (tertiary infections) are allowed (31)(32)(33). We extend this model by adding a random effect (𝛿 ! )…”

“…To determine if there are variations of individual infectiousness of cases, we use an individualbased household transmission model (31)(32)(33). The model describes the probability of infection of household contacts as depending on the time since infection in other infected people in the household, while infections from outside the household (community infections), or infections via other household contacts rather than the index case (tertiary infections) are allowed.…”

“…The copyright holder for this preprint this version posted August 30, 2022. ; https://doi.org/10.1101/2022.08. 30.22279377 doi: medRxiv preprint household (community infections), or infections via other household contacts rather than the index case (tertiary infections) are allowed (31)(32)(33). We extend this model by adding a random effect (𝛿 ! )…”