Using Satellite Images of Environmental Changes to Predict Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Ford, Tim

doi:10.3201/eid1509.081334

Cited by 47 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(1 reference statement)

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“…Monitoring these stressors at high spatial and temporal resolution, perhaps using remotely sensed products (e.g. [251]), is likely to be of considerable help in improving our understanding of how diseases might spread in the future. However, while there is a move away from using keystone species in the general ecological field as early warning indicators of vulnerable ecosystems in favour of monitoring the balance between diversity, functional groups and connectivity, it would be naive to take this approach for infectious diseases.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global change, parasite transmission and disease control: lessons from ecology

Cable

Barber

Boag

et al. 2017

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

209

160

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Parasitic infections are ubiquitous in wildlife, livestock and human populations, and healthy ecosystems are often parasite rich. Yet, their negative impacts can be extreme. Understanding how both anticipated and cryptic changes in a system might affect parasite transmission at an individual, local and global level is critical for sustainable control in humans and livestock. Here we highlight and synthesize evidence regarding potential effects of ‘system changes’ (both climatic and anthropogenic) on parasite transmission from wild host–parasite systems. Such information could inform more efficient and sustainable parasite control programmes in domestic animals or humans. Many examples from diverse terrestrial and aquatic natural systems show how abiotic and biotic factors affected by system changes can interact additively, multiplicatively or antagonistically to influence parasite transmission, including through altered habitat structure, biodiversity, host demographics and evolution. Despite this, few studies of managed systems explicitly consider these higher-order interactions, or the subsequent effects of parasite evolution, which can conceal or exaggerate measured impacts of control actions. We call for a more integrated approach to investigating transmission dynamics, which recognizes these complexities and makes use of new technologies for data capture and monitoring, and to support robust predictions of altered parasite dynamics in a rapidly changing world.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission’.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global change, parasite transmission and disease control: lessons from ecology

Cable

Barber

Boag

et al. 2017

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

209

160

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“…Increasing water temperatures as well as severe rainfall and flooding events as a consequence of climate change are likely to impact the spreading patterns and frequency of infectious disease outbreaks (175). To this end, satellite surveillance data for weather and climate forecasting may become an essential early warning system for water-related diseases because their spread can be correlated with heavy rainfalls and/or increased water temperatures (176). The potential of this approach is illustrated by the successful prediction of outbreaks of infectious diseases, such as dengue, West Nile fever, yellow fever, and malaria (177,178).…”

Section: Detecting Pathogens and Waterborne Diseasesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global Water Pollution and Human Health

Schwarzenbach

Egli

Hofstetter

et al. 2010

Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour.

1,566

753

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Water quality issues are a major challenge that humanity is facing in the twenty-first century. Here, we review the main groups of aquatic contaminants, their effects on human health, and approaches to mitigate pollution of freshwater resources. Emphasis is placed on chemical pollution, particularly on inorganic and organic micropollutants including toxic metals and metalloids as well as a large variety of synthetic organic chemicals. Some aspects of waterborne diseases and the urgent need for improved sanitation in developing countries are also discussed. The review addresses current scientific advances to cope with the great diversity of pollutants. It is organized along the different temporal and spatial scales of global water pollution. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have affected water systems on a global scale for more than five decades; during that time geogenic pollutants, mining operations, and hazardous waste sites have been the most relevant sources of long-term regional and local water pollution. Agricultural chemicals and wastewater sources exert shorter-term effects on regional to local scales. 109 Annu. Rev. Environ. Resourc. 2010.35:109-136. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org by University of Wisconsin -Madison on 10/07/12. For personal use only.

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“…This demonstrated the influence of climate on cholera outbreaks and allowed for the development of an early warning system [2]. The impact of climate change on infectious diseases in general is uncertain but satellite imaging could help in mounting an effective response [9]. Many remotely-sensed indicators have been used to study waterborne diseases whether by mapping water bodies and flooded areas or by trying to characterize different water variables of interest for disease transmission [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the performance of remotely-sensed flooding indicators and their potential contribution to early warning for leptospirosis in Cambodia

et al. 2017

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Remote sensing can contribute to early warning for diseases with environmental drivers, such as flooding for leptospirosis. In this study we assessed whether and which remotely-sensed flooding indicator could be used in Cambodia to study any disease for which flooding has already been identified as an important driver, using leptospirosis as a case study. The performance of six potential flooding indicators was assessed by ground truthing. The Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) was used to estimate the Risk Ratio (RR) of being infected by leptospirosis when exposed to floods it detected, in particular during the rainy season. Chi-square tests were also calculated. Another variable—the time elapsed since the first flooding of the year—was created using MNDWI values and was also included as explanatory variable in a generalized linear model (GLM) and in a boosted regression tree model (BRT) of leptospirosis infections, along with other explanatory variables. Interestingly, MNDWI thresholds for both detecting water and predicting the risk of leptospirosis seroconversion were independently evaluated at -0.3. Value of MNDWI greater than -0.3 was significantly related to leptospirosis infection (RR = 1.61 [1.10–1.52]; χ2 = 5.64, p-value = 0.02, especially during the rainy season (RR = 2.03 [1.25–3.28]; χ2 = 8.15, p-value = 0.004). Time since the first flooding of the year was a significant risk factor in our GLM model (p-value = 0.042). These results suggest that MNDWI may be useful as a risk indicator in an early warning remote sensing tool for flood-driven diseases like leptospirosis in South East Asia.

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Using Satellite Images of Environmental Changes to Predict Infectious Disease Outbreaks

Cited by 47 publications

References 26 publications

Global change, parasite transmission and disease control: lessons from ecology

Global change, parasite transmission and disease control: lessons from ecology

Global Water Pollution and Human Health

Assessing the performance of remotely-sensed flooding indicators and their potential contribution to early warning for leptospirosis in Cambodia

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