Using Risk Assessment to Inform Sentencing Decisions for Nonviolent Offenders in Virginia

Abstract

Virginia has abolished parole and adopted truth-in-sentencing guidelines for persons convicted of felonies. As part of this reform, the Virginia Criminal Sentencing Commission developed a method for diverting 25% of nonviolent, prison-bound offenders into alternative sanction programs using risk assessment to identify the lowest risk offenders. This article describes an evaluation of the effectiveness of this instrument, used by judges at the time of sentencing. It serves to advance an understanding of the factors associated with recidivism and the policy implications of using risk assessment to divert offenders from incarceration at a time when states are facing fiscal challenges.

Are Risky Youth Less Protectable as They Age? The Dynamics of Protection during Adolescence and Young Adulthood

“…The use of these tools has expanded rapidly during the last 10 years, with over half of all U.S. states now using some type of risk prediction instrument in parole and probation (Harcourt, 2007), and at least one state (Virginia) using a formal risk prediction tool at sentencing (Kleiman, Ostrom, & Cheesman, 2007). Initially, only static factors present at the time of the incident event, like criminal history, were used, but in the more recent generation of risk prediction tools, dynamic factors that have changed as the person progresses through the criminal justice system are also included (Andrews et al, 2006; Bonta & Andrews, 2007).…”

Statistical Procedures for Forecasting Criminal Behavior

“…One important example is recent calls for predictions of “future dangerousness” to help shape sentencing (Casey, Warren, and Elek, ; Pew Center of the States, ). The recommendations build on related risk‐assessment tools already operational in many jurisdictions, some mandated by legislation (Hyatt, Chanenson, and Bergstrom, ; Kleiman, Ostrom, and Cheeman, ; Oregon Youth Authority, ; Skeem and Monahan, ; Turner, Hess, and Jannetta, ). In Pennsylvania, for instance, a key section of a recent statute reads as follows: 42 Pa.C.S.A.§2154.7.…”

Sentencing Using Statistical Treatment Rules: What We Don’t Know Can Hurt Us

“…Ostrom et al (2002) interpret this finding as indicating that age lacks the predictive power suggested by the initial analysis. In a more recent paper, the same authors now suggest that this means that the information in age is being used efficiently to minimize crime (Kleiman et al, 2007). The interpretation of the age variable in this case depends critically on comparing the models under two known treatment regimes.…”