Using rapid damage observations from social media for Bayesian updating of hurricane vulnerability functions: A case study of Hurricane Dorian

Abstract

Abstract. Rapid impact assessments immediately after disasters are crucial to enable rapid and effective mobilization of resources for response and recovery efforts. These assessments are often performed by analysing the three components of risk: hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Vulnerability curves are often constructed using historic insurance data or expert judgments, reducing their applicability for the characteristics of the specific hazard and building stock. Therefore, this paper outlines an approach to the creation of event-specific vulnerability curves, using Bayesian statistics (i.e., the zero-one inflated beta distribution) to update a pre-existing vulnerability curve (i.e., the prior) with observed impact data derived from social media. The approach is applied in a case study of Hurricane Dorian, which hit the Bahamas in September 2019. We analysed footage shot predominantly from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and other airborne vehicles posted on YouTube in the first 10 days after the disaster. Due to its Bayesian nature, the approach can be used regardless of the amount of data available as it balances the contribution of the prior and the observations.

Reply on RC1

“…Even if vulnerability curves were available, these are dependent on both the hazard component and damage observations. Since wind speeds as part of the uncertainty within the process, many vulnerability functions being characterized as semi-empirical (e.g., Mason and Parackal, 2015;Pita et al, 2015;Smith et al, 2020;Walker, 2011) and direct comparison would be unproductive.…”

Reply on RC2

“…as semi-empirical (e.g., Mason and Parackal, 2015;Pita et al, 2015;Smith et al, 2020;Walker, 2011) and direct comparison would be unproductive.…”