Using predictions from multiple anthropogenic threats to estimate future population persistence of an imperiled species

Folt, Brian; Marshall, Michael E.; Emanuel, Jo Anna; Dziadzio, Michelina C.; Cooke, Jane; Mena, Lourdes; Hinderliter, Matthew; Hoffmann, Scott L.; Rankin, Nicole; Tupy, John; McGowan, Conor P.

doi:10.1016/j.gecco.2022.e02143

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 60 publications

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“…For example, a combination of available datasets on black rail (Laterallus jamaicensis) observations from across their range were combined into a dynamic model of demographic occupancy (McGowan et al 2020). Population estimates of gopher tortoise (Gopherus polyphemus) from multiple sites have been combined into a spatially explicit PVA that is responsive to multiple population threats (Folt et al 2022). A PVA was also developed that combined habitat area and egg counts in a Bayesian analysis for a population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) that migrates from Mexico to the Midwestern United States (Semmens et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Informing Extinction Risk: Summarizing Population Viability through a Meta-analysis of Multiple Long-term Monitoring Programs for a Declining Estuarine Fish Species

Tobias

Chen

Hobbs

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Decisions about whether to designate a species for conservation and protection depend on the ability to summarize their population trajectories and their risk of extinction. Such decisions may rely on quantitative population viability analyses based on a time series of abundance index values that are derived from a monitoring program. In the case of the Longfin Smelt (Spirinchus thaleichthys), a decision to protect a distinct population segment of the species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act was informed by several indices of population abundance. In this paper, we combined individual population viability analyses into a single metric for extinction risk using a meta-analysis framework. Individual monitoring surveys for this species generally agreed that the trajectory of abundance was downward and combining data from all of the surveys produced a better summary of the population growth rate. We also used the population growth rates in a simulation to estimate the probability that the abundance of Longfin Smelt dropped too low to recover. We found that this probability of quasi-extinction was substantial, exceeding 20% over two decades. This study demonstrates a practical way that having multiple sources of information creates better information about the trajectory of a population. Individually, the surveys contribute information about specific life stages or ages to our understanding of the population. Combined into one metric and an associated graphical summary, this analysis succinctly communicates risk and creates a benchmark for evaluating future management decisions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Informing Extinction Risk: Summarizing Population Viability through a Meta-analysis of Multiple Long-term Monitoring Programs for a Declining Estuarine Fish Species

Tobias

Chen

Hobbs

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Informing extinction risk: Summarizing population viability through a meta-analysis of multiple long-term monitoring programs for a declining estuarine fish species

Tobias,

Chen,

Hobbs

et al. 2023

Biological Conservation

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Unexpected effect of geographic origin on post‐translocation survival in a long‐lived reptile, the gopher tortoise

Loope,

Cozad,

Breakfield

et al. 2024

Animal Conservation

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Mitigation translocations move wildlife from specific areas due to conflict with humans over land use at the site. A critical decision when carrying out mitigation translocation is the acceptable distance across which animals can be moved. This decision trades off logistical expediency of unrestricted translocation with the risk of reducing translocation success due to environmental mismatch between origin and translocation site conditions. In this study, we used a large dataset of 502 individually identifiable carcasses to examine the role of geographic origin and translocation distance in the relative survival of 2822 translocated subadult and adult gopher tortoises (Gopherus polyphemus), a species experiencing large‐scale mitigation translocation, at a recipient site in the Florida panhandle, USA. We hypothesized that if climate or habitat differences between the origin and translocation site influenced survival, tortoises translocated from within the Florida panhandle would have the highest survival. To the contrary, we found that survival slightly increased with increasing climatic difference between origin and recipient site, driven by higher survival of tortoises coming from central Florida sites compared to those from the panhandle and north Florida. This suggests that environmental mismatch due to long‐distance translocation is not a main driver of mortality. These models also indicated an effect of season, with a survival advantage to tortoises translocated in the spring and late fall, relative to summer translocations, and a negative effect of initial density on survival. Finally, we also estimated the upper bound on annual survival in three well‐monitored groups to be quite low (92–95%) for several years following release, suggesting caution when considering large translocated populations to be viable without first assessing adult survival. Our unexpected results highlight the importance of investigating species‐specific sensitivities to translocation distances and indicate the limitations of assumed linear effects of translocation distance on outcomes.

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Using predictions from multiple anthropogenic threats to estimate future population persistence of an imperiled species

Cited by 5 publications

References 60 publications

Informing Extinction Risk: Summarizing Population Viability through a Meta-analysis of Multiple Long-term Monitoring Programs for a Declining Estuarine Fish Species

Informing Extinction Risk: Summarizing Population Viability through a Meta-analysis of Multiple Long-term Monitoring Programs for a Declining Estuarine Fish Species

Informing extinction risk: Summarizing population viability through a meta-analysis of multiple long-term monitoring programs for a declining estuarine fish species

Unexpected effect of geographic origin on post‐translocation survival in a long‐lived reptile, the gopher tortoise

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