Using position data to estimate effects of perceptual features of play on passing decisions in soccer

Abstract

Passes are a performance-relevant parameter in many team sports. They must be played in the highly dynamic and unpredictable contexts of interactive team competitions. The difficulty to plan passes in advance requires real-time decisions and highlights the importance of the perceptual information provided by current game contexts. This study estimates the relevance of perceptual information to passing decisions at an ecological scale by analyzing sports data from real competitions. In support of previous findings of a scenario-based investigation, open passing lanes, spatial proximity to the ball carrier, team members’ positions in front of the ball carrier, and loose defense by opposing players all significantly increased team members’ odds for receiving passes. Together, the four kinds of perceptual information enabled the correct prediction of 41% of the passes played. The prediction rate compares to a base rate of 11% and is substantially higher than that for passing decisions made in static game scenarios. The results are interpreted with regard to the relevance of the perceptual information to passing decisions made in time-constrained competitive situations.

Exploring the effects of position-related information on the perception of scenario-based passing opportunities

“…As was done with the distance variable, the medium stimulus value was set to be the exact center point of the two other values. Besides the linear relationships found between each of these two variables and the passing decisions, Steiner et al (2018) report that passing decisions did not relate linearly to the openness of the passing lanes to team members. This means that the probability of a team member being passed the ball did not augment linearly with the angle between the passing lane to that team member and the opponent player nearest to this passing lane becoming larger.…”

“…This is because the distance between two stimulus values should be determined on the basis of the different effects the two stimulus values have on the subjective perception of a passing opportunity (e.g., a subjective unit) and not just the difference in the stimulus' physical values themselves (e.g., an objectively determinable distance in meters). In defining the spacing between the low, medium, and high values of each variable, we considered the empirically determined effects the same variables had on passing decisions in real-world game situations (Steiner et al, 2018). Steiner et al reported that the probability that a player carrying the ball would pass it to a team member related linearly to that team member's distance from the ball carrier and how closely that team member was defended.…”

“…Cañal-Bruland and Mann (2015) further consider that various athletes may adopt different strategies in their use of contextual information within identical game scenarios. This last consideration is of interest with regard to another finding from Steiner et al 's (2018) study. Despite the overall correlations between the contextual features and the total sample of the analyzed passes, there were a considerable number of passing decisions that did not seem to follow this correlational pattern.…”

“…Finding recurring patterns of interaction between players and their gamerelated environment is, thus, considered a way to determine the kinds of information relevant to choosing specific behavior (e.g., Passos, Cordovil, Fernandes, & Barreiros, 2012;Barsingerhorn, Zall, De Poel, & Pepping, 2013;Da Silva et al, 2017). Adopting an ecological approach, Steiner, Rauh, Rumo, Sonderegger, and Seiler (2018) analyzed passes played in naturally occurring game situations. Comparing the positional features of team members receiving a pass to those of team members that did not indicates that athletes generally prioritize passes based on their team members' areal proximity, the openness of the passing lanes leading to team members, and how closely the team members are covered by the opponents.…”

“…These points similarly apply to research regarding the perception of passing opportunities. While potentially relevant sources of contextual information have been located (Steiner et al, 2018), nothing is known about the weighting of single pieces of information or how athletes integrate multiple informers within the process of perceiving passing opportunities. Cañal-Bruland and Mann (2015) discuss various ways in which the integration of contextual information could take place; athletes may rely on the most prominent source of information, or they may combine several sources of information additively (linearly) or in a way in which interaction between different informers occurs (non-linearly).…”