Using one vs. many, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of species distribution models with focus on conservation area networks

Ochoa‐Ochoa, Leticia M.; Flores‐Villela, Oscar; Bezaury-Creel, Juan

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.10.031

Cited by 30 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…Our distribution model reveals that 52% of the country's territory offers ideal conditions for Bd , an area that includes some regions included in previous models (James et al., ; Liu et al., ; Rödder et al., ; Ron, ) and that coincides with the regions where amphibian richness and endemism are greatest (Ochoa‐Ochoa, Flores‐Villela & Bezaury‐Creel, ; Pineda & Lobo, ; Urbina‐Cardona & Flores‐Villela, ). The model shows that in the lowlands, the coastal zones in central Mexico, the warm‐dry and humid forests, and also in a broad region of the Peninsula of Baja California, there are environments that are suitable for Bd .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 59%

“…In contrast, in the desert regions of the Americas (the deserts of Baja California, Chihuahua and Sonora), the great plains of North America (northern Nuevo León and Tamaulipas), the warm‐dry forests of central Mexico, and some lowlands such as the Balsas River Depression do not offer suitable conditions for this fungus (Rödder et al., ; Ron, ). The climate conditions in these regions of the country lie outside the thermal threshold of this pathogen and its hosts, and they also have the lowest levels of amphibian diversity and richness in the country with estimates that range from zero to five species (Ochoa‐Ochoa et al., ; Pineda & Lobo, ). According to our model, the Yucatan Peninsula has ideal conditions for Bd , but only in the far north and southeastern parts of the region.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Known and estimated distribution in Mexico of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a pathogenic fungus of amphibians

et al. 2019

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Chytridiomycosis caused by fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is one of the decline global causes of amphibians. Currently, it is distributed throughout a broad range of climates and ecosystems around the world. An epidemic wave of chytridiomycosis began in North America, resulting in population decline and local extinction of many species, reconfiguring species composition of amphibian communities in the Americas. In Mexico, Bd has caused an amphibian population decrease, and its potential distribution area has not been determined. We reviewed the number of species infected, obtaining Bd frequency of infection by land use and vegetation type, and by elevation range. We examined the known distribution of Bd, estimated the potential distribution, and obtained the bioclimate variables relevant for Bd. Our results indicate that in Mexico, Bd has been detected in 78 species of amphibians in 10 families, from 29 different land use and vegetation types, with cloud forest having the highest number of cases (139) and infected species (15). Bd occurs over an elevation range of 1-3,300 m asl and is most frequent at 1,200-1,500 m asl (36%). In addition to the regions previously described as suitable for Bd, our model included desert, coastal, and tropical forest regions, revealing an increase in the area where amphibians could be at risk of infection. Distribution of Bd is mainly associated with temperature of the wettest quarter and potential evapotranspiration of the warmer quarter. We offer an estimate of the ideal conditions for Bd in Mexico, also information for future studies on Bd and the conservation of amphibians.Abstract in Spanish is available with online material. K E Y W O R D SAmphibian conservation, amphibian population reduction, bioclimate variables, chytridiomycosis, modeling species distribution | 743 BOLOM-HUET ET aL.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 59%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Known and estimated distribution in Mexico of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a pathogenic fungus of amphibians

et al. 2019

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“…Global change poses a great challenge to the actors (policy makers and stakeholders) who deal with ecosystem protection and conservation strategies (Brooks et al., ; Hannah & Midgley, ; Hannah et al., ). Traditional conservation approaches, which are mainly based on existing and static protected areas, may be totally ineffective if they neglect the impacts of the changing environmental, especially climatic, conditions (Le Saout et al., ; Leroux & Rayfield, ; Ochoa‐Ochoa, Flores‐Villela, & Bezaury‐Creel, ; Rayfield, James, Fall, & Fortin, ; Socha, Coops, & Ochal, ). Future conservation strategies and plans play a key role in preserving ecosystems against both natural hazards and human threats, in particular due to environmental resources’ exploitation and land‐use changes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Likelihood of changes in forest species suitability, distribution, and diversity under future climate: The case of Southern Europe

Noce

Collalti

Santini

2017

Ecology and Evolution

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Forest conservation strategies and plans can be unsuccessful if the new habitat conditions determined by climate change are not considered. Our work aims at investigating the likelihood of future suitability, distribution and diversity for some common European forest species under the projected changes in climate, focusing on Southern Europe. We combine an Ensemble Platform for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to five Global Circulation Models (GCMs) driven by two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), to produce maps of future climate‐driven habitat suitability for ten categories of forest species and two time horizons. For each forest category and time horizon, ten maps of future distribution (5 GCMs by 2 RCPs) are thus combined in a single suitability map supplied with information about the “likelihood” adopting the IPCC terminology based on consensus among projections. Then, the statistical significance of spatially aggregated changes in forest composition at local and regional level is analyzed. Finally, we discuss the importance, among SDMs, that environmental predictors seem to have in influencing forest distribution. Future impacts of climate change appear to be diversified across forest categories. A strong change in forest regional distribution and local diversity is projected to take place, as some forest categories will find more suitable conditions in previously unsuitable locations, while for other categories the same new conditions will become less suited. A decrease in species diversity is projected in most of the area, with Alpine region showing the potentiality to become a refuge for species migration.

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“…To calculate the EOO (Figure ), we built a polygon (also called a convex hull) to link all the external species records and created the smallest possible area containing all the linked records of the selected species (Gaston & Fuller, ; Ochoa‐Ochoa, Flores‐Villela, & Bezaury‐Creel, ). The polygon was created with Arc GIS software (version 9.3).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional distribution patterns can predict the local habitat specialization of arachnids in heterogeneous landscapes of the Atlantic Forest

Porto

Pinto‐da‐Rocha²,

Rocha

2017

Diversity and Distributions

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Aim This study formally evaluates the ability of three models to use geographical data on species distribution to predict the habitat use patterns of species in heterogeneous landscapes. Location Species and habitats in the Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest were investigated. Methods Based on empirical data on harvestmen and scorpions, we estimated the strength of species association with preferred habitat and classified them as habitat generalists or habitat specialists. We compared these empirical results with predictions made using data on species range size (model 1), species occurrence in biomes (model 2) and species occurrence in habitats within the biomes (model 3). Results We used 1,278 records of eight harvestman and two scorpion species that had specific determination and enough sampling numbers to allow safe identification of habitat specialization. We observed the following: (1) the extension of species occurrence did not influence the strength of species–habitat association (estimated by IndVal), which led us to reject model 1; (2) species habitat specialization derived from occurrences in biomes was 60% coincident with the classification derived from empirical data. This value is not different enough from the value expected by chance for these data, which also led us to reject model 2; and (3) species classification derived from secondary data about the habitats used had a significant coincidence of 80% with the empirical classification, which led us to accept model 3. Main conclusions For correct classification of species habitat specialization using secondary distributional data, we recommend that future studies consider using the most accurate information available on the habitats used by species. Especially for megadiverse and understudied groups, information about habitats used is not easy to obtain, so it is important for researchers and institutions to register and disseminate this information, which could support many other studies.

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Using one vs. many, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of species distribution models with focus on conservation area networks

Cited by 30 publications

References 74 publications

Known and estimated distribution in Mexico of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a pathogenic fungus of amphibians

Known and estimated distribution in Mexico of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a pathogenic fungus of amphibians

Likelihood of changes in forest species suitability, distribution, and diversity under future climate: The case of Southern Europe

Regional distribution patterns can predict the local habitat specialization of arachnids in heterogeneous landscapes of the Atlantic Forest

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