Using observed incidence to calibrate the transmission level of a mathematical model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics including case management and importation

Champagne, Clara; Gerhards, Maximilian; Lana, Justin; Espinosa, Bernardo García; Bradley, Christina; González, Oscar Noya; Cohen, Justin M.; Menach, Arnaud Le; White, Michael; Pothin, Emilie

doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108750

Cited by 5 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…The singularity of the solution can be shown similarly to the case without RCD [Champagne et al, 2022].…”

Section: Polynomial Equationmentioning

confidence: 75%

“…2.1 Model of P. vivax dynamics with delayed treatment P. vivax dynamics are represented by a compartmental model where the host population is divided between infectious and susceptible individuals who do or do not harbour liver stage parasites [White et al, 2016, Champagne et al, 2022. In order to allow the possibility for treated individuals to infect mosquitoes before they effectively clear their parasites, the model by Champagne et al [2022] is modified by adding two compartments representing treated individuals.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The transmission rate λ can be calculated from observable quantities using the model's equilibrium with a similar methodology to Champagne et al [2022], where a polynomial equation for λ is derived and solved numerically. The extension of this framework to the models with RCD is detailed in Appendix C. Nonetheless, in order to use these polynomial equations in practice for calculating λ, additional calculations to derive I * , δ and ι * from observable quantities are required.…”

Section: Relation Between the Transmission Rate And Observable Quanti...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…• If σ = 0, the model is equivalent to the non-delay vivax model without either treatment or RCD [Champagne et al, 2022] with T L and T 0 added to U L and U 0 , respectively.…”

Section: C31 Relation To Other Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…These three aspects are important components of health system strengthening strategies and the possibility to compare improvements in these three dimensions simultaneously or independently can provide useful information for decision-makers. Nonetheless, it is important to note that the model is very sensitive to the value of baseline case management parameters [Champagne et al, 2022] and the modelled impact of case management strategies relies heavily on the availability and quality of data on the health system at the spatial scale of interest.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantifying the impact of interventions againstPlasmodium vivaxmalaria: a model for country-specific use

Champagne

Gerhards

Lana

et al. 2023

Preprint

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In order to evaluate the impact of various intervention strategies on Plasmodium vivax dynamics, we introduce a simple mathematical model that can be easily adapted to country-specific data. The model includes case management, vector control, mass drug administration and reactive case detection interventions and is implemented in both deterministic and stochastic frameworks. It is available as an R package to enable users to calibrate and simulate it with their own data. By simulating and comparing the impact of various intervention combinations on malaria risk and burden, this model can a useful tool for strategic planning, implementation and resource mobilization.

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“…The singularity of the solution can be shown similarly to the case without RCD [Champagne et al, 2022].…”

Section: Polynomial Equationmentioning

confidence: 75%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Relation Between the Transmission Rate And Observable Quanti...mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…• If σ = 0, the model is equivalent to the non-delay vivax model without either treatment or RCD [Champagne et al, 2022] with T L and T 0 added to U L and U 0 , respectively.…”

Section: C31 Relation To Other Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantifying the impact of interventions againstPlasmodium vivaxmalaria: a model for country-specific use

Champagne

Gerhards

Lana

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Quantifying the impact of interventions against Plasmodium vivax: A model for country-specific use

Champagne,

Gerhards,

Lana

et al. 2024

Epidemics

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AnophelesModel: An R package to interface mosquito bionomics, human exposure and intervention effects with models of malaria intervention impact

Golumbeanu,

Briët,

Champagne

et al. 2023

Preprint

Self Cite

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In recent decades, field and semi-field studies of malaria transmission have gathered geographic-specific information about mosquito ecology, behaviour and their sensitivity to interventions. Mathematical models of malaria transmission can incorporate such data to infer the likely impact of vector control interventions and hence guide malaria control strategies in various geographies. To facilitate this process and make model predictions of intervention impact available for different geographical regions, we developed AnophelesModel. AnophelesModel is an online, open-access, R package that directly allows incorporating generated entomological data for adjustment of models to assess intervention scenarios according to species and location-specific characteristics. In addition, it includes a previously published, comprehensive, curated database of field entomological data from over 50 Anopheles species, field data on mosquito and human behaviour, and on estimates of vector control effectiveness. Using the input data, the package parameterizes a discrete-time, state transition model of the mosquito oviposition cycle and infers species-specific impacts of various interventions on vectorial capacity. In addition, it offers formatted outputs ready to use in downstream analyses and by other models of malaria transmission for accurate representation of the vector-specific components. Using AnophelesModel, we show how the key implications for intervention impact change for various vectors and locations. The package facilitates quantitative comparisons of likely intervention impacts in different geographical settings varying in vector compositions, and can thus guide towards more robust and efficient malaria control recommendations. The AnophelesModel R package is available under a GPL-3.0 license at https://github.com/SwissTPH/AnophelesModel.

show abstract

Using observed incidence to calibrate the transmission level of a mathematical model for Plasmodium vivax dynamics including case management and importation

Cited by 5 publications

References 34 publications

Quantifying the impact of interventions againstPlasmodium vivaxmalaria: a model for country-specific use

Quantifying the impact of interventions againstPlasmodium vivaxmalaria: a model for country-specific use

Quantifying the impact of interventions against Plasmodium vivax: A model for country-specific use

AnophelesModel: An R package to interface mosquito bionomics, human exposure and intervention effects with models of malaria intervention impact

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