Using novel spawning ground indices to analyze the effects of climate change on Pacific saury abundance

Liu, Shigang; Liu, Yang; Fu, Caihong; Liu, Yan; Xu, Yi; Wu, Rong; Li, Jianchao; Tian, Yongjun

doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2018.12.007

Cited by 25 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…It is well known that marine assemblages are prone to variations in winter water temperature (Morley, Batt, & Pinsky, 2017; Tian, Kidokoro, & Watanabe, 2006; Tian et al., 2013). Winter is the main spawning season for most species in the Kuroshio ecosystem, such as yellowtail, blue mackerel, Japanese sardine and Pacific saury (Liu et al., 2019; Tian et al., 2012; Yasuda, Sugisaki, Watanabe, Minobe, & Oozeki, 1999; Yukami, Ohshimo, Yoda, & Hiyama, 2009). On the one hand, variations in winter water temperature are of great importance to egg and larval survival and growth.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The PDO, NPGO, Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI), Siberian High Index (SHI), North Pacific Index (NPI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and East Asian Monsoon Index (MOI) are useful large‐scale climatic indices to define climate variability in the North Pacific (Di Lorenzo et al., 2008; Gong, Wang, & Zhu, 2001; Hare & Mantua, 2000; Mantua & Hare, 2002; Ropelewski & Jones, 1987; Thompson & Wallace, 1998; Wu & Wang, 2002). These large‐scale climatic indices are often associated with variations in fish communities and ecosystems in the North Pacific (Liu et al., 2019; Ma, Liu, et al, 2019; Tian, Nashida, & Sakaji, 2013). We extracted these climatic indices from open‐access online databases at a monthly temporal scale for the period 1970–2014.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lorenzo et al, 2008;Gong, Wang, & Zhu, 2001;Hare & Mantua, 2000;Mantua & Hare, 2002;Ropelewski & Jones, 1987;Thompson & Wallace, 1998;Wu & Wang, 2002). These large-scale climatic indices are often associated with variations in fish communities and ecosystems in the North Pacific (Liu et al, 2019;Tian, Nashida, & Sakaji, 2013). We extracted these winter (December-February, a period that is frequently used in relevant researches) averages of the climatic indices were calculated to represent their variability and to correspond to variability in monthly and winter SST field.…”

Section: Species Selection and Biological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate‐induced nonlinearity in pelagic communities and non‐stationary relationships with physical drivers in the Kuroshio ecosystem

Tian

et al. 2020

Fish and Fisheries

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Climate-induced nonlinearity in biological variability and non-stationary relationships with physical drivers are crucial to understand responses of marine organisms to climate variability. These phenomena have raised concerns in the northeastern North Pacific, but are out of the spotlight in the northwestern North Pacific in spite of potential implications for this productive system under increased climate variability. Pelagic communities in the Kuroshio ecosystem have both ecological and economic importance. However, patterns of climate-induced nonlinearity in pelagic communities are not well understood, and existence of non-stationarity in their relationships with physical drivers remains obscure. Here, we compile large numbers of climatic, oceanic and biological long-term time-series data and employ diverse statistical techniques to reveal such climate-induced nonlinearity and non-stationarity. Results show that pelagic communities in the Tsushima and Pacific areas (major areas in the Kuroshio ecosystem) had regime shifts in the late 1990s and late 1980s, respectively. Winter sea surface temperatures in the Kuroshio Current path and in the eastern part of East China Sea, which are respectively affected by the Kuroshio Current and Siberian High, correlate with dominant variability patterns in their pelagic communities. Furthermore, non-stationarity was identified with threshold years in the 1990s in the Tsushima area and in the 1980s in the Pacific area as a possible result of the declined variances in the Siberian High and Aleutian Low, respectively. Our findings provide insights on spatial differentiation of climate-induced nonlinearity and nonstationarity, which are valuable for the management of pelagic communities in the northwestern North Pacific under changing climatic conditions. K E Y W O R D S climate variability, ecological threshold, Kuroshio Current, non-stationary relationship, pelagic species, regime shift 7 3.4 Non-stationarity in community-environment relationships 7 4 DISCUSSION 9 4.1 Similarity and difference between the variability patterns 9 4.2 SST effects on pelagic communities 11 4.3 Climate effects on the SST fields 11 4.4 Climate-induced non-stationarity and its implications for fisheries management 12 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 13

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Species Selection and Biological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate‐induced nonlinearity in pelagic communities and non‐stationary relationships with physical drivers in the Kuroshio ecosystem

Tian

et al. 2020

Fish and Fisheries

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“…All these large-scale climatic indices (short as CIs) are derived from open-access online databases and have a monthly temporal scale for the period 1963-2016. These CIs are well documented and largely associated with variations in the fish communities and ecosystems in the North Pacific (Tian et al, 2014;Liu et al, 2019;Ma et al, 2019).…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 97%

“…Therefore, these climate variability patterns may contribute less to ecosystem variability in the northwestern North Pacific. Aside from the patterns in the PDO, NPGO, and ENSO (SOI), studies in the northwestern North Pacific always consider the Arctic Oscillation Index (AOI), East Asian Monsoon Index (MOI), and Siberian High Index (SHI, variations in Siberian High pressure system) in order to explore more potential links between climate variability patterns and regional environment and ecosystem variability (Tian et al, 2014;Jung et al, 2017;Liu et al, 2019;Ma et al, 2019). However, the ecological importance of these climate variability patterns has not been evaluated, which may hamper predictions of climateinduced ecosystem variability in the northwestern North Pacific.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Variability Patterns and Their Ecological Effects on Ecosystems in the Northwestern North Pacific

Tian

et al. 2020

Front. Mar. Sci.

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Climate-induced ecosystem variability is an increasing concern in recent years. Integrated researches in the northeastern North Pacific have proved the ecological importance of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to the ecosystem variability. While in the northwestern North Pacific, researches have been independent of each other over different regional ecosystems, and identified relatively weak linkages between these climatic indices (e.g., PDO, NPGO, and ENSO) and variations in the regional ecosystems. Such disassociated researches with unidentified important climate variability patterns may have hampered a holistic understanding of climate-induced ecosystem variability in the northwestern North Pacific. Furthermore, non-stationarity in climate-biology relationships has been proven to be important for ecosystems in the northeastern North Pacific but has not yet been studied in the northwestern North Pacific. Therefore, this research compiles biological, environmental, and climatic data in ecosystems in the northwestern North Pacific and employs a suite of analytical techniques, aiming to provide a holistic understanding of the climate-induced ecosystem variability. It shows that ecosystems in the northwestern North Pacific had a leading regime shift in the late 1980s in response to climate variability. The Siberian High, Arctic Oscillation, and East Asian Monsoon exhibit greater ecological importance to ecosystem variability than the PDO, NPGO, and ENSO. Their variations contribute greatly to sea surface temperature changes and thus variations in ecosystems. Furthermore, modified models considering non-stationary relationships achieve better performances than stationary models, suggesting the existence of non-stationarity in climate-biology relationships in the northwestern North Pacific. This non-stationarity resulted from the decline in variance of the sea level pressure in Siberian High rather than the Aleutian Low as suggested by previous studies in the northeastern North Pacific. Our research provides an improved understanding of the climate-induced ecosystem variability in the northwestern North Pacific, offering implications for further research on the entire North Pacific.

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What Is Environmental Economics?

Aruga

2022

Environmental and Natural Resource Economics

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Using novel spawning ground indices to analyze the effects of climate change on Pacific saury abundance

Cited by 25 publications

References 38 publications

Climate‐induced nonlinearity in pelagic communities and non‐stationary relationships with physical drivers in the Kuroshio ecosystem

Climate‐induced nonlinearity in pelagic communities and non‐stationary relationships with physical drivers in the Kuroshio ecosystem

Climate Variability Patterns and Their Ecological Effects on Ecosystems in the Northwestern North Pacific

What Is Environmental Economics?

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