Using models and spatial analysis to analyze spatio-temporal variations of food provision and food potential across China's agro-ecosystems

Abstract

a b s t r a c tIn order to better regionalize and discuss the rationality/irrationality of the spatial patterns China' food provision, food production and population data was collected and GIS spatial analysis and modeling methods were used. Multi-level spatial analysis and contrast between North and South China was carried out from three aspects: (1) Ecosystem food provision potential (EFPP).Step-by-step-modifying models were constructed to assess EFPP, parameters including solar radiation, temperature, humidity, topography, soil, and landuse. (2) Conversion ratio of the EFPP (CRFP), representing the ratio of actual food production to the EFPP. High EFPP and low CRFP means high remaining food potential for future exploration (or protecting, increasing). (3) Population pressure of food provision (PPFP). PPFP was calculated based on food production, population, nutrition ingredient, and consumption standards. High PPFP means food deficiency. Results: (1) The EFPP in South and Southeast China is much higher than in the North regions, while the CRFP is the opposite; this means the South and Southeast China has more remaining food potential to explore (or to protect). CRFP in Northeast China is the highest (81%), indicating the food provision in Northeast China is approaching its maximum potential. In the future it is not wise to rely solely on food provision increases in North China, which may aggravate some problems like water shortage and ecosystem deterioration. (2) PPFP in the South and Southeast of China is much greater than in the North and has been rising, indicating that South and Southeast China have deficiency in food supply and is more and more dependent on food transportation from North China. It is necessary to preserve the fertile and high-yielding croplands as well as reclaim new food resources in the southern and eastern to improve its food self-sufficiency. From the above results, we can derive that the "North Grain to South" (NGS) pattern of China is irrational. This is in opposition to the present pattern of NGS but consistent with some other studies of domain experts, who also claim the NGS pattern may need adjustment.

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