Using Microcomputers to Teach Sensitivity Analysis to Medical Students

Abstract

Teaching sensitivity analysis can be hampered by the large computational burden required by successive recalculation of outcomes. We designed a package of programs for an Apple II Plus microcomputer that allows rapid recalculation of two "model" decision problems currently available in the literature (hernia surgery and pharyngitis). The package presents the baseline values of the models and the expected utilities for each decision. The user can alter one or more key model values and recalculate the utilities easily and repeatedly. The threshold points for a number of variables are automatically computed. The package is interactive and prompts the user for all required input. No knowledge of computer programming is required to use the package. Students who were familiar with the basic elements of decision analysis were introduced to the modeled problems by didactic tutorials and independent reading. They were then given a set of sensitivity analyses to perform using the computerized models as a tool. Students were able to complete the sensitivity analysis assignments without difficulty and discussion of model assumptions was stimulated. The package enhances the teaching of sensitivity analysis by reducing its computational burden and promoting understanding of its nature and value.