Using integrated population modelling to quantify the implications of multiple threatening processes for a rapidly declining population

Rhodes, Jonathan R.; Ng, Chooi Fei; Villiers, Deidré L. de; Preece, Harriet J.; McAlpine, Clive; Possingham, Hugh P.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2010.12.027

Cited by 145 publications

(167 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…Jones 2000) could be considered for key locations where koala movements occur over roads. Our findings are consistent with other research that suggests that habitat augmentation, safe road crossing and minimising dog attacks, as well as disease management (see Griffith and Higgins 2012), are key management actions that must be enacted together to ensure the conservation of koala populations (see Lunney et al 2002;Rhodes et al 2011).…”

Section: Management Implicationssupporting

confidence: 91%

“…Reed et al 1990;Dique et al 2003). The conservation of this species is dependent on being able to adequately cater for its needs within these urban environments, in addition to being able to reduce the incidence of disease, road-kill and dog attack Rhodes et al 2011). Dique et al (2003) estimated that~280 koalas were killed on roads per year in southeast Queensland.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Home range areas of koalas in an urban area of north-east New South Wales

Goldingay

Dobner

2014

Aust. Mammalogy

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Abstract. Conserving wildlife within urban areas requires knowledge of habitat requirements and population processes, and the management of threatening factors. The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) is one species that is adversely affected by urban development. Sick and injured koalas in the Lismore urban area are regularly taken into care. We radio-tracked koalas released from care in order to estimate home-range areas and to determine their fate. Koalas were tracked for periods of 90-742 days; 7 of 10 survived for a period of at least one year. Home ranges defined by the minimum convex polygon (MCP100%) were large (mean AE s.e. = 37.4 AE 8.2 ha). Analysis using the 95% Fixed Kernel revealed home-range areas of 8.0 AE 1.7 ha. Analysis of the habitat composition of each MCP home range showed that they included 4.3 AE 0.9 ha of primary habitat (dominated by their primary food trees). These home ranges contained 27.6 AE 6.8 ha of non-habitat (cleared or developed land). Koalas crossed roads within their home ranges at least 5-53 times; one crossed the Bruxner Highway near a roundabout at least 32 times over his 2-year tracking period. Future management should include strategic food tree planting that enhances habitat connectivity and minimises the risk of car strike or dog attack.

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Section: Management Implicationssupporting

confidence: 91%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Home range areas of koalas in an urban area of north-east New South Wales

Goldingay

Dobner

2014

Aust. Mammalogy

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“…More such studies are urgently needed, particularly within tropical environments, to provide an evidence base to better inform our understanding of spatial demography in tropical species that are threatened by current land-use change. The development of more sophisticated integrated population models, capable of bringing together data from multiple sources to estimate demographic rates, could increase our capacity to detect source-sink patterns in a wider range of systems [59,60]. Improvements in the size, performance and cost-effectiveness of individual tracking technology might also aid considerably in the quantification of survival and dispersal patterns [61].…”

Section: Moving Forwards: Redoubling Efforts To Detect Source-sink Pamentioning

confidence: 99%

Source-Sink Dynamics: a Neglected Problem for Landscape-Scale Biodiversity Conservation in the Tropics

Gilroy

Edwards

2017

Curr Landscape Ecol Rep

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Ecologists have long recognised that populations can persist in poor-quality habitats with below-replacement populationgrowthrates ('sinks') providedthereis continual immigration from areas with positive intrinsic growth ('sources'). Source-sink dynamics complicate the assessment of species-environment relationships, because species' presence or density can be poorly correlated with underlying population productivity. Yet, applied conservation research often uses presence or abundance data to assess species responses to environmental change, particularly in the tropics where few long-term ecological studies are established. This approach assumes that abundance data reliably indicate habitat quality, but in sinks, this assumption can be violated. We review the recent literature and identify a regional bias in reporting of source-sink phenomena, with 71% of the 210 studies considered coming from temperate regions, particularly Eurasia and North America. Very few studies come from tropical and subtropical biomes, where human-driven biodiversity loss is occurring most rapidly, with over 80% not providing strong evidence in the form of demographic, dispersal or molecular data.Source-sink studies in tropical regions have predominantly investigated populations exposed to hunting/exploitation, with few examining land-use change. We review policy-relevant arenas where better treatment of source-sink dynamics is a priority: spatial conservation planning, assessments of land-sparing versus land-sharing, the conservation value of selectively logged forests, and species distribution modelling. Finally, we discuss ways to improve understanding of source-sink dynamics, particularly in tropical regions. Failure to detect source-sink patterns across the hyperdiverse tropics could limit the efficacy of conservation practice, leading us to underestimate the severity of human impacts on biodiversity.

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“…The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) has been affected by landuse change (Phillips 1990;Melzer et al 2000;McAlpine et al 2006;Rhodes et al 2011) and by climate change (Seabrook et al 2011;Lunney et al 2012a). In the present study, we examined both simultaneously.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Extinction in Eden: identifying the role of climate change in the decline of the koala in south-eastern NSW

et al. 2014

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Context. Reviews of climate change in Australia have identified that it is imposing additional stresses on biodiversity, which is already under threat from multiple human impacts.Aims. The present study aimed to determine the contributions of several factors to the demise of the koala in the Eden region in south-eastern New South Wales and, in particular, to establish to what extent climate change may have exacerbated the decline.Methods. The study built on several community-based koala surveys in the Eden region since 1986, verified through interviews with survey respondents. Historical records as far back as the late 19th century, wildlife databases and field-based surveys were used to independently validate the community survey data and form a reliable picture of changes in the Eden koala population. Analysis of the community survey data used a logistic model to assess the contribution of known threats to koalas, including habitat loss measured as changes in foliage projective cover, fire, increases in the human population and climate change in the form of changes in temperature and rainfall, to the regional decline of this species.Key results. We found a marked, long-term shrinkage in the distribution of the koala across the Eden region. Our modelling demonstrated that a succession of multiple threats to koalas from land use (human population growth and habitat loss) and environmental change (temperature increase and drought) were significant contributors to this decline.Conclusions. Climate change, particularly drought and rising temperatures, has been a hitherto hidden factor that has been a major driver of the decline of the koala in the Eden region.Implications. Development of strategies to help fauna adapt to the changing climate is of paramount importance, particularly at a local scale.

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Using integrated population modelling to quantify the implications of multiple threatening processes for a rapidly declining population

Cited by 145 publications

References 36 publications

Home range areas of koalas in an urban area of north-east New South Wales

Home range areas of koalas in an urban area of north-east New South Wales

Source-Sink Dynamics: a Neglected Problem for Landscape-Scale Biodiversity Conservation in the Tropics

Extinction in Eden: identifying the role of climate change in the decline of the koala in south-eastern NSW

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