Using Hydrologic Simulation to Explore the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff in the Huaihe River Basin of China

Zhang, J. Y.; Wang, G. Q.; Pagano, T. S.; Jin, Jian; Liu, C. S.; He, Ronghai; Liu, Y. L.

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000581

Cited by 33 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…This implies an increasing rate of evapotranspiration, which could bring a distortion (imbalance) of water content in the atmosphere and surface water [5]. Hence, studies of the impact of global climate change on different sectors (water resource management, agriculture and ecosystems) become an important scientific research area across the world besides their economic and social importance [6][7][8]. This is because changes in precipitation and temperature have a direct impact on drought and flood occurrence [9][10][11] and therefore, may have a serious impact on humans, infrastructure, and environment [12,13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydro-Meteorological Drought Projections into the 21-st Century for Selected Polish Catchments

Meresa

Osuch

Romanowicz

2016

Water

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Abstract:The nature of drought conditions is estimated using a range of indices describing different aspects of drought events. Three drought indices are evaluated, namely the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI), using observed hydroclimatic data and applying them to hydro-meteorological projections into the 21st century. The first two indices are evaluated using only meteorological variables and from this point of view, are better suited to meteorological drought projections than the third index, SRI, which is based on catchment discharge and represents hydrological drought. We assess information contained in those indices and their suitability to catchment scale climate projection drought assessment in ten selected Polish catchments, representing different hydro-climatic conditions, which are used as a case study. Projections of climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) are obtained from the EURO-CORDEX initiative derived from seven climate models at a grid resolution of 12.5 km for the time period 1971-2100. Future runoff projections for the catchments are obtained using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (HBV). The results of analyses of indices based on observations in the reference period show consistent estimates for most of the catchments. Hydro-meteorological climate model projections for three periods, including the reference period 1971-2000, and two 30-year periods, near-future 2021-2050 and far-future 2071-2100, are used to estimate changes of future drought conditions in the catchments studied. The results show a substantial variation of temporal drought patterns over the catchments and their dependence on projected precipitation and temperature variables and the type of indices applied. Of the three indices studied, only SPEI projections indicate drier conditions in the catchments in the far-future period. The other two indices, SPI and SRI, indicate wetter climates in the future.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Water 2016, 8,206 3 of 22 divided into different climatic zones, with wetter southern and northern parts and a drier middle part. The mean annual precipitation over Poland in the period 1961-2009 was 623.7 mm [30] but the central part of the Western Carpathian Mountains reached precipitations higher than 1000 mm.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydro-Meteorological Drought Projections into the 21-st Century for Selected Polish Catchments

Meresa

Osuch

Romanowicz

2016

Water

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“…The shortcoming of this kind of method is lack of physical interpretation; (5) Hydrological simulation approach. With the rapid development of computer science, hydrological models have been applied widely in assessing the impacts of environmental change (e.g., climate change, human activities, or both) [27][28][29]. Wang et al [16] proposed identifying the individual impact of human activity and climate change on changes in runoff of the Sanchuan River by applying a well-developed hydrological model to naturalize runoff over the period of human disruption, with the difference between naturalized runoff and recorded runoff being induced by human activity.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Attribution of Runoff Change for the Xinshui River Catchment on the Loess Plateau of China in a Changing Environment

Wang

Zhang

Yang

2016

Water

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Abstract:Stream flow plays a crucial role in the environment, society, and the economy, and identifying the causes of changes in runoff is important to understanding the impact of climate change and human activity. This study examines the variation trends in recorded runoff for the Xinshui River, a tributary of the Yellow River on the Loess Plateau, and uses hydrological simulations to investigate how climate change and human activity have contributed to those trends. Results show that the recorded runoff at the Daning station on the Xinshui River declined significantly from 1955-2008 with an abrupt change occurring in 1973. The Simplified Water Balance Model (SWBM) simulates monthly discharge well with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) coefficient of 78% and a relative error of volumetric fit (RE) of 0.32%. Runoff depth over the catchment in 1973-2008 fell by 25.5 mm relative to the previous period, with human activity and climate change contributing 60.6% and 39.4% of the total runoff reduction, respectively. However, the impacts induced by climate change and human activities are both tending to increase. Therefore, efforts to improve the ecology of the Loess Plateau should give sufficient attention to the impacts of climate change and human activity.

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“…This study concluded that water resources in the catchment will probably decline in the next decades, although uncertainty still exists in the assessment. Previous studies on this topic show that (1) widely used climate change scenarios generally include hypothetical scenarios, SRES climate projections, and RCPs climate scenarios (Roger et al 2005;Hans 2007;Bao et al 2012;Hidalgo et al 2013;Wang et al 2013b) and (2) hydrological models are a viable tool to assess potential impacts of climate change on regional water regimes (Xie et al, 2007;Zhang et al 2013). Lumped conceptual hydrological models are often applied to small-or medium-scale catchments (Gleick 1987;Arnell 1999;Roger et al 2005;Wang et al 2013a), while distributed hydrological models are widely used for largescale catchments (Xie et al 2007;Wang et al 2012;Bao et al 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Li et al (2008) projected approximately 5 % decrease in runoff for the head region of the Yellow River with an improved Xin An Jiang (XAJ) model and ensemble projections of GCMs used in United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report. Annual runoff across the Huai River basin will likely increase under different climate scenarios and expect challenges to deal with regional flooding to be exacerbated as a result of global warming (Zhang et al 2013). The majority of the current studies for China focus on analysis of historical variation of stream flows and possible reasons for changes in runoff.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies

Wang

Zhang

Jin

et al. 2015

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Climate change is a global environmental issue, which is challenging water resources management and practices. This study investigates the impact of climate change on water resources of the Yellow River basin, a major grain-producing area in China, and provides recommendations on strategies to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in the basin region. Results show that the recorded stream flows of the Yellow River declined from 1951 to 2010 and have decreased significantly in the middle and lower reaches. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model performs well as a tool to simulate monthly discharge of both the tributary catchments and the whole Yellow River basin. Temperature across the Yellow River basin over 2021-2050 is expected to continue to rise with an average rates of approximately 0.039-0.056°C/annum. The average annual precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 1.28-3.29 % compared with the 1991-2010 baseline. Runoff during 2021-2050 is projected to decrease by 0.53-9.67 % relative to 1991-2010 with high decadal and spatial variability. This is likely due to the model's projections of a significant rise in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. Climate change will likely aggravate the severity and frequency of both water shortages and flooding in the basin region. It is therefore essential to devote sufficient attention on structural and non-structural measures for the Yellow River basin to cope with climate change. At the global level, strategies to increase adaptive capacity and build resilience to climate change focus on public education to improve awareness of climate risks, implementing the integrated water resources management and planning based on impact assessments.

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Using Hydrologic Simulation to Explore the Impacts of Climate Change on Runoff in the Huaihe River Basin of China

Cited by 33 publications

References 17 publications

Hydro-Meteorological Drought Projections into the 21-st Century for Selected Polish Catchments

Hydro-Meteorological Drought Projections into the 21-st Century for Selected Polish Catchments

Attribution of Runoff Change for the Xinshui River Catchment on the Loess Plateau of China in a Changing Environment

Impacts of climate change on water resources in the Yellow River basin and identification of global adaptation strategies

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