Using GRACE/GRACE-FO, Data-Driven, and Modeling to Assess the Twentieth and Twenty-first Century Water Storage Changes in the Nile River Basin

Abstract

This research assesses the changes in the total water storage (TWS) during the twentieth century and their future projections in the Nile River Basin (NRB) via TWSA (TWS anomalies) records from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment), GRACE-FO (Follow-On), data-driven-reanalysis TWSA and land surface model (LSM), in association with precipitation, temperature records, and standard drought indicators. The analytical approach incorporates the development of 100+ yearlong TWSA records using a probabilistic conditional distribution fitting approach by the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale, and Shape) model. The drought and flooding severity, duration, magnitude, frequencies, and recurrence were assessed during the studied period. The results showed, 1- The NRB between 2002 to 2020 has transited to substantial wetter conditions. 2- The TWSA reanalysis records between 1901 to 2002 revealed that the NRB had experienced a positive increase in TWS during the wet and dry seasons. 3- The projected TWSA between 2021 to 2050 indicated slight positive changes in TWSA during the rainy seasons. The analysis of drought and flooding frequencies between 1901 to 2050 indicated the NRB has ~64 dry-years compared to ~86 wet-years. The 100+ yearlong TWSA records assured that the NRB transited to wetter conditions relative to few dry spells. These TWSA trajectories call for further water resources planning in the region especially during flood seasons. This research contributes to the ongoing efforts to improve the TWSA assessment and its associated dynamics for transboundary river basins. It also demonstrates how an extended TWSA record provides unique insights for water resources management in the NRB and similar regions.