Using geospatial methods to measure the risk of environmental persistence of avian influenza virus in South Carolina

Stenkamp-Strahm, Chloe; Patyk, Kelly A.; McCool-Eye, Mary Jane; Humphreys, John; James, Adewale; South, David D.; Magzamen, Sheryl

doi:10.1016/j.sste.2020.100342

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…Humans, horses, and other mammals exhibit a low viremic response to infection and are, therefore, considered incidental or "dead end" hosts in the EEEv cycle [10][11][12][13]. Unlike other bird-mediated zoonotic viruses, such as avian influenza [14][15][16], environmental contamination is not recognized as a major component of EEEv transmission; thus, the EEEv ecological niche is better described by passerine occurrence and community composition than it is by the ambient climate or environmental conditions external to birds. Given their obligate role in virus transmission, passerine hosts are key to understanding EEEv distribution and prevalence at the landscape scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplification in Time and Dilution in Space: Partitioning Spatiotemporal Processes to Assess the Role of Avian-Host Phylodiversity in Shaping Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Distribution

Humphreys

2022

Geographies

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Eastern equine encephalitis virus (EEEv) is an arthropod-borne virus and the causative agent of neurologic disease in humans, horses, poultry, and wildlife. Although EEEv is known to be transmitted in cycles involving avian hosts and ornithophilic mosquitoes, there is ongoing debate about the role avian-host phylodiversity plays in diluting or amplifying virus prevalence across geographic space and through time. This study leveraged seventeen years of non-human EEEv detections to quantify possible EEEv dilution and amplification effects in response to avian-host phylodiversity. In assessing EEEv and avian-host diversity relationships, comparisons were performed to illustrate how modeling decisions aimed at capturing spatial patterns, temporal trends, and space–time interactions impacted results and the interpretations drawn from those results. Principal findings indicated that increased avian phylodiversity promotes EEEv dilution across geographic space, but this dilution effect is scale-dependent and masked by amplification effects that occur through time. Findings further demonstrated that the decisions made when modeling complex spatiotemporal dynamics can readily contribute to contrasting statistical outcomes and results misinterpretation, even when arithmetic and mathematics are strictly correct.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Amplification in Time and Dilution in Space: Partitioning Spatiotemporal Processes to Assess the Role of Avian-Host Phylodiversity in Shaping Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Distribution

Humphreys

2022

Geographies

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“…Unlike direct transmission, which necessitates that hosts and susceptible organisms be coincident in both space and time, indirect transmission from an environmental reservoir requires only that hosts and susceptible organisms share a common space within a time frame encompassing the pathogen's period of infectivity. AIVs exhibit environmental persistence that may span a period of weeks or months (Pathak et al., 2018; Ramey et al., 2020; Sooryanarain & Elankumaran, 2015; Stallknecht & Brown, 2009; Stenkamp‐Strahm et al., 2020) greatly increasing the ecological opportunity for indirect transmission. There is limited evidence that aquatic invertebrates may act as AIV vectors (Meixell et al., 2013; Pathak et al., 2018; Stumpf et al., 2010); however, indirect transmission to poultry by way of contaminated air, soil, water and fomites (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The spatial–temporal relationship of blue‐winged teal to domestic poultry: Movement state modelling of a highly mobile avian influenza host

Humphreys

Douglas

Ramey

et al. 2021

Journal of Applied Ecology

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1. Migratory waterfowl facilitate long-distance dispersal of zoonotic pathogens and are increasingly recognized as contributing to the geographic spread of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). AIVs are globally distributed and have the potential to produce highly contagious poultry disease, economically impact both large-scale and backyard poultry producers, and raise the spectre of epidemics and pandemics in human populations.2. Because migratory waterfowl behaviour varies across multiple spatial and temporal scales, the timing and distribution of wild bird AIV introductions to poultry are also heterogeneous in time and space. To help reduce economic impacts to

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“…On the other hand, Gulyaeva et al (2020) reported a model for AI along the Pacific Rim using geospatial methods. In addition, the use of multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) identified potential high-risk areas by monitoring specific factors (Egli et al, 2019;Younsi et al, 2019;Stenkamp-Strahm et al, 2020). All these contribute to a better understanding of the transmission of influenza viruses that could be estimated in great detail by combining geographic, epidemiological and immunological data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geospatial modelling to estimate the territory at risk of establishment of influenza type A in Mexico - An ecological study

et al. 2021

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The aim of this study was to estimate the territory at risk of establishment of influenza type A (EOITA) in Mexico, using geospatial models. A spatial database of 1973 outbreaks of influenza worldwide was used to develop risk models accounting for natural (natural threat), anthropic (man-made) and environmental (combination of the above) transmission. Then, a virus establishment risk model; an introduction model of influenza A developed in another study; and the three models mentioned were utilized using multi-criteria spatial evaluation supported by geographically weighted regression (GWR), receiver operating characteristic analysis and Moran’s I. The results show that environmental risk was concentrated along the Gulf and Pacific coasts, the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Baja California. The identified risk for EOITA in Mexico were: 15.6% and 4.8%, by natural and anthropic risk, respectively, while 18.5% presented simultaneous environmental, natural and anthropic risk. Overall, 28.1% of localities in Mexico presented a High/High risk for the establishment of influenza type A (area under the curve=0.923, P<0.001; GWR, r2=0.840, P<0.001; Moran’s I =0.79, P<0.001). Hence, these geospatial models were able to robustly estimate those areas susceptible to EOITA, where the results obtained show the relation between the geographical area and the different effects on health. The information obtained should help devising and directing strategies leading to efficient prevention and sound administration of both human and financial resources.

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Using geospatial methods to measure the risk of environmental persistence of avian influenza virus in South Carolina

Cited by 10 publications

References 57 publications

Amplification in Time and Dilution in Space: Partitioning Spatiotemporal Processes to Assess the Role of Avian-Host Phylodiversity in Shaping Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Distribution

Amplification in Time and Dilution in Space: Partitioning Spatiotemporal Processes to Assess the Role of Avian-Host Phylodiversity in Shaping Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Distribution

The spatial–temporal relationship of blue‐winged teal to domestic poultry: Movement state modelling of a highly mobile avian influenza host

Geospatial modelling to estimate the territory at risk of establishment of influenza type A in Mexico - An ecological study

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