Using FlamMap to assess wildfire behavior in Bohemian Switzerland National Park

Abstract

The 2022 summer re in Bohemian Switzerland National Park (BSNP) is ranked as the largest in the Czech Republic´s 30-year recorded history, with an affected area over 1000 ha. The FlamMap re modeling system was used to investigate the re behavior associated with the BSNP and to evaluate scenarios under a range of fuel types, fuel moistures, and weather conditions. We used the model to simulate re conditions, propagation, and extent. We focused on matching the observed re perimeter and on re behavior characteristics. The re took place in a region of BSNP that was heavily affected by the Spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus L.) infestation; hence, most of the burned area was in dead spruce forest (Picea abies Karst.). The best FlamMap simulations of observed re behavior and progression were compared with several created scenarios that differed in various input conditions. Scenarios included a re in a healthy spruce forest, in clearcuts, or under different meteorological conditions. We were able to calibrate and use FlamMap to recreate a recent wild re under observed conditions. We found that the re would have likely spread to its observed nal perimeter even if standing dead trees were removed. However, at lower re intensity and with a considerably shorter duration. Alternatively, if healthy standing vegetation with a closed canopy had been present, the wild re perimeter would have been approximately half. Similar results were obtained for both the nonnative spruce forest and the deciduous forest, which is a native alternative.