Using existing data to predict and quantify the risks of GM forage to a population of a non-target invertebrate species: A New Zealand case study

Abstract

Determining the effects of genetically modified (GM) crops on non-target organisms is essential as many nontarget species provide important ecological functions. However, it is simply not possible to collect field data on more than a few potential non-target species present in the receiving environment of a GM crop. While risk assessment must be rigorous, new approaches are necessary to improve the efficiency of the process. Utilisation of published information and existing data on the phenology and population dynamics of test species in the field can be combined with limited amounts of experimental biosafety data to predict possible outcomes on species persistence. This paper presents an example of an approach where data from laboratory experiments and field studies on phenology are combined using predictive modelling. Using the New Zealand native weevil species Nicaeana cervina as a case study, we could predict that oviposition rates of the weevil feeding on a GM ryegrass could be reduced by up to 30% without threat to populations of the weevil in pastoral ecosystems. In addition, an experimentally established correlation between feeding level and oviposition led to the prediction that a consistent reduction in feeding of 50% or higher indicated a significant risk to the species and could potentially lead to local extinctions. This approach to biosafety risk assessment, maximising the use of pre-existing field and laboratory data on non-target species, can make an important contribution to informed decision-making by regulatory authorities and developers of new technologies.

Responses of 9 lepidopteran species to Bacillus thuringiensis: How useful is phylogenetic relatedness for selecting surrogate species for nontarget arthropod risk assessment?

“…On the other hand, ecosystem impacts manifest at the level of populations not individuals. Although there is no consensus yet on the definition of “ecologically significant” harm to nontarget arthropods (Sanvido et al ., ), “local species extinction” has been suggested as a meaningful assessment endpoint for risk assessment of toxicants, biological control agents, or GM crops (e.g., Banks et al ., , ; O'Callaghan et al ., ; Tanaka, ). If this viewpoint is taken, then it is possible that the reasonably subtle differences in survival responses of individuals observed here in laboratory tests may not translate into meaningful differences in impacts on populations in the field.…”

Development and application of modern agricultural biotechnology in Botswana: The potentials, opportunities and challenges

“…Notable examples to that end are herbicide tolerant alfalfa, 17 maize, 18 and other forage and fodder crops (rye grass and tall fescue). 19 In Botswana, the Ministry of Agriculture has for many years come up with strategies to mitigate the effect of biotic and abiotic factors on crop production so that yields could be improved. The strategies involved coming up with policies that support farmers to increase arable crop production and productivity at the farm level.…”