Using ensemble forecasting to examine how climate change promotes worldwide invasion of the golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata)

Lei, Juncheng; Chen, Lian; Li, Hong

doi:10.1007/s10661-017-6124-y

Cited by 36 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The AUC accuracy ranged from 0.868 to 0.937, considered as excellent, whereas the TSS accuracy ranged from 0.652 to 0.736, considered as good. Despite the high accuracy of the single models, the ensemble model forecasting is an effective method for aggregating single SDMs and resolving the problem of intermodel variability, thus leading to results of higher precision (Xu et al, 2015; Lei et al, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Elevation Shift of the European Beech Stands (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Serbia

et al. 2019

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According to climate projection models, the global temperature is expected to rise by at least 1.5°C by the end of this century. According to some studies the expected rise in Serbia is even higher. Global warming may result in creating new areas for forest growth. Although creating new forests would be a positive outcome in some areas, global warming can cause negative impacts in other areas, and this can lead to forest loss and the shift of geographical ranges, or even extinction, of plant species. The European beech is the dominant forest tree species in Serbia, featuring high ecological importance and economic value. In mixed or pure stands, beech forests cover approximately 660,400 ha, accounting for 29.3% of the total Serbian forest area. In the present study, the effects of climate change on the distribution of the European beech stands in Serbia, with an emphasis on their elevation shifts, were examined using species distribution models (SDMs). Data for the present tree cover in Serbia, climate projections, and environmental data were used for model building. The models were first tested against present inventory data. In these tests, the models were found to provide accurate projections, as shown by their true skills statistics (TSS) values ranging from 0.652 to 0.736 and area under the curve (AUC) values ranging from 0.868 to 0.937. The potential distribution patterns predicted by the models indicate that the European beech elevational distribution in Serbia would decrease, exhibiting a significant upward shift in elevation during the first part of this century. Current beech stand locations could be changed, and other areas at higher elevations may be more suitable for beech growth. After 2071, European beech stands at elevations below 500 m would be even smaller. This change is caused by temperature rise and occurrence of climate extremes. However, on the highest elevations, further upward shift of the species is not expected.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential Elevation Shift of the European Beech Stands (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Serbia

et al. 2019

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“…The successful establishment of IAS depends on many factors, including abiotic and biotic interactions, as well as movement capabilities, concepts expressed in the biotic abiotic movement (BAM) diagram of Soberón and Peterson [13]. Recently, many papers investigated the response of IAS to climate change, with several studies indicating an increase of potential invasiveness, which goes along with the global change [14,15,16]. In this context, ecological niche models (ENMs) are a tool that can be used to infer the distribution of species in different spaces or times (e.g., [17,18,19,20,21]), even when dealing with IAS.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Current and Future Co-Occurrence of Ambrosia artemisiifolia and Ophraella communa in Europe through Ecological Modelling and Remote Sensing Data Analysis

Iannella

Simone

D’Alessandro

et al. 2019

IJERPH

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The common ragweed Ambrosia artemisiifolia has spread throughout Europe since the 1800s, infesting croplands and causing severe allergic reactions. Recently, the ragweed leaf beetle Ophraella communa was found in Italy and Switzerland; considering that it feeds primarily on A. artemisiifolia in its invaded ranges, some projects started biological control of this invasive plant through the adventive beetle. In this context of a ‘double’ invasion, we assessed the influence of climate change on the spread of these alien species through ecological niche modelling. Considering that A. artemisiifolia mainly lives in agricultural and urbanized areas, we refined the models using satellite remote-sensing data; we also assessed the co-occurrence of the two species in these patches. A. artemisiifolia is predicted to expand more than O. communa in the future, with the medium and high classes of suitability of the former increasing more than the latter, resulting in lower efficacy for O. communa to potentially control A. artemisiifolia in agricultural and urbanized patches. Although a future assessment was performed through the 2018 land-cover data, the predictions we propose are intended to be a starting point for future assessments, considering that the possibility of a shrinkage of target patches is unlikely to occur.

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“…As an invasive species, apple snails become active, feed more, and disperse more widely with global warming [20,24]. Therefore, we must understand the ecology of apple snails to establish an efficient and effective management policy for these invasive snails.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Since apple snails are tolerant of water temperatures between 2 • C and 38 • C [21], they may expand their habitat and colonize new freshwater ecosystems with global warming [22,23]. According to Lei et al [24], their suitable habitat may potentially increase by 3.8% in the 2080s based on the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Their habitat has the potential to increase by 10.3% based on the RCP 8.5 scenario, indicating that global warming will enable them to enlarge their invasion area, threatening the survival of native apple snails which are weaker competitors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of Invasive Apple Snail (Pomacea canaliculata) Behaviors in Different Water Temperature Gradients

Bae

Kim

Park

2021

Water

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Pomacea canaliculata (known as invasive apple snail) is a freshwater snail native to South America that was introduced into many countries (including Asia and North America) as a food source or for organic farming systems. However, it has invaded freshwater ecosystems and become a serious agricultural pest in paddy fields. Water temperature is an important factor determining behavior and successful establishment in new areas. We examined the behavioral responses of P. canaliculata with water temperature changes from 25 °C to 30 °C, 20 °C, and 15 °C by quantifying changes in nine behaviors. At the acclimated temperature (25 °C), the mobility of P. canaliculata was low during the day, but high at night. Clinging behavior increased as the water temperature decreased from 25 °C to 20 °C or 15 °C. Conversely, ventilation and food consumption increased when the water temperature increased from 25 °C to 30 °C. A self-organizing map (an unsupervised artificial neural network) was used to classify the behavioral patterns into seven clusters at different water temperatures. These results suggest that the activity levels or certain behaviors of P. canaliculata vary with the water temperature conditions. Understanding the thermal biology of P. canaliculata may be crucial for managing this invasive snail.

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Using ensemble forecasting to examine how climate change promotes worldwide invasion of the golden apple snail (Pomacea canaliculata)

Cited by 36 publications

References 56 publications

Potential Elevation Shift of the European Beech Stands (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Serbia

Potential Elevation Shift of the European Beech Stands (Fagus sylvatica L.) in Serbia

Investigating the Current and Future Co-Occurrence of Ambrosia artemisiifolia and Ophraella communa in Europe through Ecological Modelling and Remote Sensing Data Analysis

Comparison of Invasive Apple Snail (Pomacea canaliculata) Behaviors in Different Water Temperature Gradients

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