Using Delphi and System Dynamics to Study the Cybersecurity of the IoT-Based Smart Grids

Abstract

IoT-based Smart Grids (SGs) are important to modern society. SGs can improve the profitability and reliability of the electric power system by incorporating renewable energies and highly developed communication technologies. The communication network plays an essential role in electrical networks, and trends favor implementing SGs with IoT devices. However, these IoT-based SGs are vulnerable to cyberattacks. This article presents our studies of malware that can attack IoT-based SGs. First, the article explains as a first step the conclusions of a literature survey on SGs complemented with a Delphi process with security experts to understand trends and malware with an emphasis on the IoT area. Next, the article discusses the behavior of the chosen malware using System Dynamics and calibration with stochastic optimization. Finally, conclusions are given, which identify research work to be carried out using more in-depth modeling with agent-based simulation and multiple resolution modeling (MRM). MRM can provide a platform to integrate with time, scale, and space specialized models of each system of the SGs to support the development of effective risk management schemes.