Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin; Katz, Rachel A.; Canessa, Stefano; Adams, Michael J.; Ballard, Jennifer R.; Berger, Lee; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Coleman, Jeremy T. H.; Gray, Matthew J.; Harris, M. Camille; Harris, Reid N.; Hossack, Blake R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Kolby, Jonathan E.; Lips, Karen R.; Lovich, Robert E.; McCallum, Hamish; Mendelson, Joseph R.; Nanjappa, Priya; Olson, Deanna H.; Powers, Jenny G.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Sluijs, Annemarieke Spitzen‐van der; Watry, Mary Kay; Woodhams, Douglas C.; White, C. LeAnn

doi:10.1002/fee.1481

Cited by 76 publications

(103 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Our initial comparison of actions was obviously not exhaustive and more creative thinking is to be encouraged (Grant et al., ). However, irrespective of the management strategy, our conclusions are likely to remain broadly applicable; ultimately any action that seeks to address an epidemic would rely on the manipulation of one of the processes described in the model, such as pathogen growth, host survival or rates of transition between infection states.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A particularly challenging problem for conservation science is the development of responses to emerging infectious diseases, which are increasingly driving biodiversity loss worldwide (Fisher et al., ). Infectious diseases often demand rapid decision‐making in the face of scarce knowledge, limited time for learning, and challenges turning the available scientific knowledge into actions (Grant et al., ). For example, the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis was identified about 20 years ago (Longcore, Pessier, & Nichols, ); its role in global amphibian declines was clarified over the following decade (Skerratt et al., ); potential mitigation strategies were then considered (Scheele et al., ; Woodhams et al., ), yet to date implementation has been rare and success in maintaining susceptible populations of amphibians in the pathogen's presence remains elusive (Bosch et al., ; Geiger, Bregnard, Maluenda, Voordouw, & Schmidt, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Decision‐making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Canessa

Bozzuto²,

Grant

et al. 2018

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Conservation science can be most effective in its decision‐support role when seeking answers to clearly formulated questions of direct management relevance. Emerging wildlife diseases, a driver of global biodiversity loss, illustrate the challenges of performing this role: in spite of considerable research, successful disease mitigation is uncommon. Decision analysis is increasingly advocated to guide mitigation planning, but its application remains rare. Using an integral projection model, we explored potential mitigation actions for avoiding population declines and the ongoing spatial spread of the fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). This fungus has recently caused severe amphibian declines in north‐western Europe and currently threatens Palearctic salamander diversity. Available evidence suggests that a Bsal outbreak in a fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population will lead to its rapid extirpation. Treatments such as antifungals or probiotics would need to effectively interrupt transmission (reduce probability of infection by nearly 90%) in order to reduce the risk of host extirpation and successfully eradicate the pathogen. Improving the survival of infected hosts is most likely to be detrimental as it increases the potential for pathogen transmission and spread. Active removal of a large proportion of the host population has some potential to locally eradicate Bsal and interrupt its spread, depending on the presence of Bsal reservoirs and on the host's spatial dynamics, which should therefore represent research priorities. Synthesis and applications. Mitigation of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans epidemics in susceptible host species is highly challenging, requiring effective interruption of transmission and radical removal of host individuals. More generally, our study illustrates the advantages of framing conservation science directly in the management decision context, rather than adapting to it a posteriori.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision‐making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Canessa

Bozzuto²,

Grant

et al. 2018

Journal of Applied Ecology

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“…Unfortunately, appropriate opportunities for proactive management of wildlife diseases (i.e., those that do not affect humans, livestock, or crops) are rarely identified (Voyles et al, 2015), although they may be more effective and cost less than reactive approaches (Sterrett et al, 2019). By considering actions prior to the arrival of a pathogen, managers will be primed to acknowledge constraints, identify uncertainties in the host's ecology, and develop strategic collaborations that secure resources for improving host populations and mitigating the disease risk (Grant et al, 2017;Meek et al, 2015). By considering actions prior to the arrival of a pathogen, managers will be primed to acknowledge constraints, identify uncertainties in the host's ecology, and develop strategic collaborations that secure resources for improving host populations and mitigating the disease risk (Grant et al, 2017;Meek et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Different management strategies are optimal for combating disease in East Texas cave versus culvert hibernating bat populations

Bernard

Fuller

Reichard

et al. 2019

Conservat Sci and Prac

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Management decisions for species impacted by emerging infectious diseases are challenging when there are uncertainties in the effectiveness of management actions. Wildlife managers must balance trade-offs between mitigating the effects of the disease and the associated consequences on other aspects of the managed system. An example of this challenge is exemplified in the response to white-nose syndrome (WNS), a disease of hibernating bats. The fungal pathogen that causes WNS, Pseudogymnoascus destructans, continues to spread throughout North America. Texas, recently confirmed positive for the fungus, has documented 33 bat species in the state, with nearly half of those species naïve to the pathogen. We explicitly incorporated multiple management objectives, uncertainty, and risk in the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department decision to manage East Texas populations of the tri-colored bat (Perimyotis subflavus), a species highly susceptible to WNS. Alternatives included individual actions that act against P. destructans or benefit bats, a no active management option, and combinations of actions. Although our main objective was to identify WNS mitigation measures for tricolored bats in culverts, we also considered the transferability of the decision for natural caves. In this scenario, the optimal decision differed for culverts and caves, with a "portfolio" combination of actions ranking as the best alternative for culverts and a single vaccine alternative for caves. Because the top management alternatives differed markedly between these two systems, finding treatments that have broad application is likely infeasible, given that each management decision is characterized by different mixtures of competing objectives. K E Y W O R D Sbats, proactive management, Pseudogymnoascus destructans, structured decision making, tri-colored bats, white-nose syndrome, WNS

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“…mate change mitigation and adaptation plans developed for human communities, few management strategies have been developed specifically for imperiled species, and ones targeting amphibians are especially rare (Appendix S1A). Consequently,Grant et al (2017) issued a call for improved responses to the potential threat of emerging infectious diseases, a significant factor in the declines and extinctions of amphibian species.AsGrant et al (2017) stressed with the threat of emerging infectious diseases, effective conservation and management in the face of climatic uncertainty require a proactive framework to reduce risk of future catastrophic storm impacts to vulnerable populations of imperiled species. The few climate adaptation actions that have been explored for amphibians primarily focus on mediating effects of temperature increases and more variable precipitation (Griffis-Kyle, 2016;Shoo et al, 2011) Muths and Fisher (2017).…”

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confidence: 99%

Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate

Walls

Barichivich

Chandler

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change is anticipated to exacerbate the extinction risk of species whose persistence is already compromised by habitat loss, invasive species, disease, or other stressors. In coastal areas of the southeastern United States (USA), many imperiled vertebrates are vulnerable to hurricanes, which climate models predict to become more severe in the 21st century. Despite this escalating threat, explicit adaptation strategies that address hurricane threats, in particular, and climate change more generally, are largely underrepresented in recovery planning and implementation. We provide a basis for stronger emphasis on strategic planning for imperiled species facing the increasing threat of catastrophic hurricanes. Our reasoning comes from observations of short‐term environmental and biological impacts of Hurricane Michael, which impacted the Gulf Coast of the southeastern USA in October 2018. During this storm, St. Marks National Wildlife Refuge, located along the northern Gulf of Mexico's coast in the panhandle region of Florida, received storm surge that was 3.0–3.6 m (NAVD88) above sea level. Storm surge pushed sea water into some ephemeral freshwater ponds used for breeding by the federally threatened frosted flatwoods salamander (Ambystoma cingulatum). After the storm, specific conductance across all ponds measured varied from 80 to 23,100 µS/cm, compared to 75 to 445 µS/cm in spring 2018. For 17 overwashed wetlands that were measured in both spring and fall 2018, posthurricane conductance observations were, on average, more than 90 times higher than in the previous spring, setting the stage for varying population responses across this coastal landscape. Importantly, we found live individual flatwoods salamanders at both overwashed and non‐overwashed sites, although we cannot yet assess the demographic consequences of this storm. We outline actions that could be incorporated into climate adaptation strategies and recovery planning for imperiled species, like A. cingulatum, that are associated with freshwater coastal wetlands in hurricane‐prone regions.

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Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

Cited by 76 publications

References 32 publications

Decision‐making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Decision‐making for mitigating wildlife diseases: From theory to practice for an emerging fungal pathogen of amphibians

Different management strategies are optimal for combating disease in East Texas cave versus culvert hibernating bat populations

Seeking shelter from the storm: Conservation and management of imperiled species in a changing climate

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