Using citizen science data in integrated population models to inform conservation

Robinson, Orin J.; Ruiz‐Gutiérrez, Viviana; Fink, Daniel; Meese, Robert J.; Holyoak, Marcel; Cooch, Evan G.

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2018.10.002

Cited by 42 publications

(53 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…The proportional declines in colony size and overall abundance documented in this study and that of Robinson et al (), respectively, suggest that tricolored blackbird is struggling. It is possible, however, to imagine scenarios where this conclusion would be incorrect.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 65%

“…The Partners in Flight Landbird Conservation Plan lists the species on its Red Watch List, with an estimated species half‐life of approximately 50 years (Rosenberg et al ). The 5% annual decrease in colony size observed during this study was statistically indistinguishable from a 6% annual decrease in overall abundance recently reported by Robinson et al (), who evaluated an integrated population model that used an independent set of count data from the eBird program (Sullivan et al ). The similarity in annual declines across the 2 different studies is intriguing, and suggests that colony size is declining in proportion to overall tricolored blackbird abundance.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 58%

“…However, despite an increased number of observers and site visits, the number of reported colonies has remained steady. Second, although the current study relied strictly on colony counts, trends from Robinson et al () were also informed by productivity estimates and survival information from banding data.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Trends in tricolored blackbird colony size: 2008 through 2017

et al. 2019

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Tricolored blackbird (Agelaius tricolor) is a colonial breeder, largely restricted to grasslands, wetlands, and agricultural areas of California, USA. Tricolored blackbird abundance declined considerably during the twentieth century. Recent trends have been less clear, however, hindering efforts to evaluate the conservation needs of the species. We assessed trends in tricolored blackbird colony size using 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017 Triennial Tricolored Blackbird Statewide Survey, a community‐science effort involving hundreds of volunteer observers. After accounting for variation in observer characteristics and survey effort, we found a clear, statistically significant decrease in average colony size of approximately 5% per year, which translated to a decrease in average colony size of approximately 40% between 2008 and 2017. This decrease in colony size matches the overall decline in abundance reported in another recent study and reinforces the conclusion that tricolored blackbird is in need of protection and recovery efforts. © 2019 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Wildlife Society.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 58%

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Trends in tricolored blackbird colony size: 2008 through 2017

et al. 2019

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“…Large‐scale multi‐site surveys have long played an important role in advancing ecology and conservation (Buckland, Magurran, Green, & Fewster, ; Magurran et al, ). Continued development of IPMs that combine large‐scale data sets of marked individuals with structured (e.g., BBS) or unstructured (e.g., eBird; Robinson et al, ) observational data should lend powerful new insights into the status and trends of populations as they encounter novel environments associated with recent habitat and climate change (Butchart et al, ; Tittensor et al, ). Although we do not explore predictions of future populations here, by extending the time series of our model into the future, extinction risk for each of the genetic groups could be assessed based on predicted time series of future climate covariate values and estimates of mean demographic rates and demographic stochasticity (our hierarchical region‐specific estimates of annual variation).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It should be noted, however, that there was some indication that positive temperature effects declined at larger between-year spring temperature increases (~>1°C increases), which may have implications under an increasingly variable and warming environment.Large-scale multi-site surveys have long played an important role in advancing ecology and conservation(Buckland, Magurran, Green, & Fewster, 2005;Magurran et al, 2016). Continued development of IPMs that combine large-scale data sets of marked individuals with structured (e.g., BBS) or unstructured (e.g., eBird;Robinson et al, 2018) observational data should lend powerful new insights into the status and trends of populations as they encounter novel environments associated with recent habitat and climate change (Butchart F I G U R E 7 Annual population growth rates v. covariates that influenced vital rates (a, c, e) and contributions of demographic parameters to changes in population growth rates v. annual changes in climate covariate values(b, d, f). Points represent means and error bars delineate 95% credible intervalsTittensor et al, 2014).…”

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confidence: 99%

Integrating broad‐scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird

Saracco

Rubenstein

2020

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate variation and trends affect species distribution and abundance across large spatial extents. However, most studies that predict species response to climate are implemented at small spatial scales or are based on occurrence‐environment relationships that lack mechanistic detail. Here, we develop an integrated population model (IPM) for multi‐site count and capture‐recapture data for a declining migratory songbird, Wilson's warbler (Cardellina pusilla), in three genetically distinct breeding populations in western North America. We include climate covariates of vital rates, including spring temperatures on the breeding grounds, drought on the wintering range in northwest Mexico, and wind conditions during spring migration. Spring temperatures were positively related to productivity in Sierra Nevada and Pacific Northwest genetic groups, and annual changes in productivity were important predictors of changes in growth rate in these populations. Drought condition on the wintering grounds was a strong predictor of adult survival for coastal California and Sierra Nevada populations; however, adult survival played a relatively minor role in explaining annual variation in population change. A latent parameter representing a mixture of first‐year survival and immigration was the largest contributor to variation in population change; however, this parameter was estimated imprecisely, and its importance likely reflects, in part, differences in spatio‐temporal distribution of samples between count and capture‐recapture data sets. Our modeling approach represents a novel and flexible framework for linking broad‐scale multi‐site monitoring data sets. Our results highlight both the potential of the approach for extension to additional species and systems, as well as needs for additional data and/or model development.

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Comparing abundance distributions and range maps in spatial conservation planning for migratory species

Johnston

Auer

Fink

et al. 2020

Ecological Applications

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Most spatial conservation planning for wide‐ranging or migratory species is constrained by poor knowledge of species’ spatiotemporal dynamics and is only based on static species’ ranges. However, species have substantial variation in abundance across their range and migratory species have important spatiotemporal population dynamics. With growing ecological data and advancing analytics, both of these can be estimated and incorporated into spatial conservation planning. However, there is limited information on the degree to which including this information affects conservation planning. We compared the performance of systematic conservation prioritizations for different scenarios based on varying the input species’ distributions by ecological metric (abundance distributions versus range maps) and temporal sampling resolution (weekly, monthly, or quarterly). We used the example of a community of 41 species of migratory shorebirds that breed in North America, and we used eBird data to produce weekly estimates of species’ abundances and ranges. Abundance distributions at a monthly or weekly resolution led to prioritizations that most efficiently protected species throughout the full annual cycle. Conversely, spatial prioritizations based on species’ ranges required more sites and left most species insufficiently protected for at least part of their annual cycle. Prioritizations with only quarterly species ranges were very inefficient as they needed to target 40% of species’ ranges to include 10% of populations. We highlight the high value of abundance information for spatial conservation planning, which leads to more efficient and effective spatial prioritization for conservation. Overall, we provide evidence that spatial conservation planning for wide‐ranging migratory species is most robust and efficient when informed by species’ abundance information from the full annual cycle.

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Using citizen science data in integrated population models to inform conservation

Cited by 42 publications

References 47 publications

Trends in tricolored blackbird colony size: 2008 through 2017

Trends in tricolored blackbird colony size: 2008 through 2017

Integrating broad‐scale data to assess demographic and climatic contributions to population change in a declining songbird

Comparing abundance distributions and range maps in spatial conservation planning for migratory species

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