Using a grey relational analysis in an improved Grunow–Finke assessment tool to detect unnatural epidemics

Abstract

The Grunow-Finke epidemiological assessment tool (GFT) has several limitations in its ability to differentiate between natural and man-made epidemics. Our study aimed to improve the GFT and analyze historical epidemics to validate the model. Using a gray relational analysis (GRA), we improved the GFT by revising the existing standards and adding five new standards. We then removed the artificial weights and final decision threshold. Finally, by using typically unnatural epidemic events as references, we used the GRA to calculate the unnatural probability and obtain assessment results. Using the advanced tool, we conducted retrospective and case analyses to test its performance. In the validation set of 13 historical epidemics, unnatural and natural epidemics were divided into two categories near the unnatural probability of 45%, showing evident differences (p < 0.01) and an assessment accuracy close to 100%. The unnatural probabilities of the Ebola virus disease of 2013 and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome of 2012 were 30.6% and 36.1%, respectively. Our advanced epidemic assessment tool improved the accuracy of the original GFT from approximately 55% to approximately 100% and reduced the impact of human factors on these outcomes effectively.

Contribution of Constituents in Rosemary‐Magnolia Compound Essential Oil to Antibacterial, Antioxidant and Cytotoxicity Bioactivities Revealed by Grey Correlation Analysis

“…Gray correlation analysis is a certain statistical method to seek the numerical relationship between subsystems (or factors) in a target system, and has been widely applied in studies of medical pathology, [41] model evaluation of artificial intelligence, [42] industrial technology enhancement, [43] ecological environment optimization, [44] food quality monitoring, [45] and grain yield increase. [46] Qin Shiyu et al used grey correlation analysis to derive the highest boron application concentration contributing to the overall grain quality, [46] Deng Xin et al used this method to calculate the contribution of 30 characteristic peaks of Astragalus membranaceus to the pharmacodynamicrelated biological activities, [47] Li Lijing et al used this method to derive the seven characteristic peaks contributing to the high antioxidant activity in the fingerprint profile of the Chinese herbal formula Tonic Yang Returning Five Soup.…”