User's Manual for Predicting Military Task Retention. Volume 2. Revision

The Long-Term Retention of Knowledge and Skills: A Cognitive and Instructional Perspective

“…We will propose such a theoretical framework and try to argue successfully for its explnatory po%,er. We believe it can point the way to (a) prescriptions f.-designing intru,-tion that can promote !earning, retention and transfer; and (b) models that can lead to implementable techniques to predict the course of retention, for the full variety and complexity of task types, more precisely than (for example) the task-retention-rating system (Rose, Radtke, Shettel & Hagman, 1985) developed for the U.S. Army. (That rating system, based upon the characteristics of the task to be learned, will be described in some detail later.)…”

The training, retention, and assessment of digital skills: A review and integration of the literature

“…Tasks that require the recall of fewer than 8 items are remembered well but tasks that require the recall of more than 8 items suffer rapid decay (Wisher et al, 1999). In general, the greater the physical task demands the faster the decay, although surprisingly tasks that require only simple motor control such as hammering a nail decay faster than tasks that require moderate precision (Rose, Radtke, Shettel, & Hagman, 1985a).…”

“…In the early 1980's ARI undertook an effort to develop an empirically based model for predicting skill decay (Rose, Czarnolewski et al, 1985;Rose, Radtke et al, 1985a). The model was designed so that unit leaders could estimate how quickly skill decay would occur for any given skill and subsequently how often refresher training would be needed to maintain the level of proficiency desired by the leader.…”

“…Predictions of skill decay are made using the Users Decision Aid or UDA which takes ratings of task variables and uses them to predict skill decay (Rose, Radtke et al, 1985a;Rose, Radtke, Shettel, & Hagman, 1985b). The result is an estimate of the percentage of individuals who will be proficient on a given task after a specified retention interval assuming everyone in the group is initially trained to proficiency.…”

A Taxonomy for Predicting Team and Collective Task Performance Change

“…Research on the retention of individual military tasks (Shields, Goldberg, and Dressel, 1979;Rose, et. al., 1984;Rose, Radtke, Shettel, and Hagman, 1985) indicates that one of the strongest predictors of the forgetting rate of a task is the number of steps required to perform the task. While the predictive value of the number-of-steps variable is greatest for procedural tasks, It has an intuitive Iappeal, as well.…”