User perspectives of climate forecasts: crop producers in Pergamino, Argentina

Abstract

A necessary initial step in assessing the value of climate information for regional agriculture is to gauge user perceptions concerning the use of that information. We attempt to do so for cereal and oilseed production in Pergamino, Argentina, located in the Pampas, one of the world's major agricultural regions. A survey of 200 farmers identified climate forecast scale and the reliability of the source of forecast as critical obstacles to adoption. Users' incomplete knowledge of how El Niño-Southern Oscillation affects their region may also pose an obstacle to greater use of climate information. A related problem is that users sometimes confuse the different time scales of weather and climate forecasting. Research and outreach to downscaling forecasts temporally and spatially toward user communities would help close the gap of expectations between forecast user and provider, and would facilitate the trust building process between the two that must precede adoption. KEY WORDS: Climate information · Attitudes · ENSO · AgricultureResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher Clim Res 19: 57-67, 2001 priorities and may undermine our ability to provide useful information. Scientists need to know how the public is likely to respond to ENSO-based climate forecasts because those responses alter the economic influence of climatic impacts (Burns 1999). Policy makers should understand user needs, to realize the potential economic value from the emerging technology of ENSO-based climate forecasting (Changnon 1996).To assess perceptions of ENSO-based climatic forecasting, we used focus groups and a user survey to approach cereal and oilseed producers in Pergamino, Argentina, located in the climatically favorable eastern portion of the Pampas, one of the world's major agricultural regions (Fig. 1). We focus on Argentina for several reasons. Argentina is a major agricultural producer. The value of its agricultural exports was 50 to 60% that of its overall exports and 5.5 to 9.6% of its GDP (gross domestic product) over 1989 (InterAmerican Development Bank 1999. In Argentina, interannual climatic variability causes high variability in crop yields and returns (Parellada et al. 1998, Messina et al. 1999, Podestá et al. 1999a, Ferreyra et al. 2001.1 Since the economic reforms of 1991, rising grain prices, relative to those for beef, have induced an expansion of cultivated areas that amplifies the effects of anomalous climate (Basualdo 1995). 2 The predominant soil in Pergamino is a typical Argiudoll (Paruelo & Sala 1993). Characteristic crop rotations include maize, soybean, and a wheat-soybean relay. Median annual precipitation is 937 mm. Hall et al. (1992) give a description of the climate, soils, and crop production systems in the Pampas. We take an empirical case study approach so that we can identify a specific context for climate information in agricultural decision making. However, the similarity in production scale, crops grown and technology in the Pampas to those in other ma...

The Use of Climate Forecasts Information by Farmers in Limpopo Province, South Africa

“…5, No. 2;2013 revealed distinct advantages including that the information was more reliable than when other more conventional methods were used, the information enhanced the mutual exchange of information between farmers and specialists and, finally, the information gathering became an inseparable part of the processes of planning and extension (Chambers, 1992a,b;Eakin, 1999;Vogel, 2000;Pratt, 2002;Letson et al, 2001;Phillips et al, 2001;Gadgil et al, 2002;.…”

Managing Climate Risks Using Seasonal Climate Forecast Information in Vhembe District in Limpopo Province, South Africa

“…Climate information, even if provided in a perfect forecast, has limited value if it cannot be understood and used by the recipient to support the decision-making process (Glantz, 1977;Chagnon, 1992;Osunade, 1994;Mutiso, 1997;Huber and Pedersen, 1998;Eakin, 2002;Roncoli et al, 1999;Finan & Nelson, 2001;Roncoli et al, 2001a;Roncoli et al, 2002a;Luseno et al, 2000). Most studies of the value of the seasonal forecast have been conducted in the developed world (Mjelde et al, 1988;Lyakhou, 1994;Mosley, 1994;Mason, 1996;Nicholls, 1996;Mjelde et al, 1997;Landman & Mason, 1999;Letson et al, 2001;Klopper & Landman, 2003, O'Brien & Vogel., 2003. This paper will add to the few studies conducted in the southern African region.…”

“…Forecasts, moreover, need to be expressed in the language of the users, providing the communities with possible appropriate alternatives to current production methods (Price, 1995;Arctic Council, 1995;Blench, 1999;Stern and Easterling, 1999;Stricherz, 1999;Letson et al, 2001;Valdivia and Gillies., 2003;Easton, 2004b;Hansen et al, 2004;Ziervogel et al, 2004). Blench (1999) and Finan (1999), argue that these forecasts will probably be useful only to certain types of producers, as not all farmers can equally access or use the information.…”

Modelling the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in the Province of British Columbia

“…Likewise, water deficit occurring immediately before flowering can lead to pollen sterility and will result in a drastic decline in grain yield (Ingver et al, 2010;Nguyen & Sutton, 2009;Thakur, Kumar, Malik, Berger, & Nayyar, 2010). Previous research relating predicted climatic variations to crop response have offered the potential to anticipate changes in crop production early enough to adjust critical decisions (Blench, 2003;Hansen, 2002;Letson et al, 2001). …”