Usefulness of the MPB-INFURG-SEMES model to predict bacteremia in the patient with solid tumor in the Emergency Department

Abstract

Objective. To analyse a new risk score to predict bacteremia (MPB-INFURG-SEMES) in the patients with solid tumor attender for infection in the emergency departments (ED). Patients and methods. Prospective, multicenter observational cohort study of blood cultures (BC) obtained from adult patients with solid neoplasia treated in 63 EDs for infection from November 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. The predictive ability of the model was analyzed with the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). The prognostic performance for true bacteremia was calculated with the chosen cut-off for getting the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. Results. A total of 857 blood samples wered cultured. True cases of bacteremia were confirmed in 196 (22.9%). The remaining 661 cultures (77.1%) wered negative. And, 42 (4.9%) were judged to be contaminated. The model’s area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.923 (95% CI,0.896-0.950). The prognostic performance with a model’s cut-off value of ≥ 5 points achieved 95.74% (95% CI, 94,92-96.56) sensitivity, 76.06% (95% CI, 75.24-76.88) specificity, 53.42%(95% CI, 52.60-54.24) positive predictive value and 98.48% (95% CI, 97.66- 99.30) negative predictive value. Conclusion. The MPB-INFURG-SEMES score is useful for predicting bacteremia in the adults patients with solid tumor seen in the ED.