Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: an example in asynchronously breeding birds

Williams, Kathryn; Frederick, Peter C.; Nichols, James D.

doi:10.1890/10-0137.1

Cited by 28 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 33 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Estimation can be problematic for highly mobile and migratory animals, as individuals often occupy habitats asynchronously. Evidence suggests that capture-recapture methods that account for the temporal variability of annual residency are robust approaches for estimating abundance (Williams et al 2011). Hence, one of the most commonly used models to estimate abundance at migratory destinations is the superpopulation POPAN model Schwarz 1996, 1999), a derivative of the Jolly-Seber model (Jolly 1965, Seber 1965.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for female reproductive cycles in a superpopulation capture–recapture framework

Carroll

Childerhouse²,

Fewster

et al. 2013

Ecological Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Superpopulation capture-recapture models are useful for estimating the abundance of long-lived, migratory species because they are able to account for the fluid nature of annual residency at migratory destinations. Here we extend the superpopulation POPAN model to explicitly account for heterogeneity in capture probability linked to reproductive cycles (POPAN-s). This extension has potential application to a range of species that have temporally variable life stages (e.g., non-annual breeders such as albatrosses and baleen whales) and results in a significant reduction in bias over the standard POPAN model. We demonstrate the utility of this model in simultaneously estimating abundance and annual population growth rate (k) in the New Zealand (NZ) southern right whale (Eubalaena australis) from 1995 to 2009. DNA profiles were constructed for the individual identification of more than 700 whales, sampled during two sets of winter expeditions in 1995-1998 and 2006-2009. Due to differences in recapture rates between sexes, only sex-specific models were considered. The POPAN-s models, which explicitly account for a decrease in capture probability in non-calving years, fit the female data set significantly better than do standard superpopulation models (DAIC . 25). The best POPAN-s model (AIC) gave a superpopulation estimate of 1162 females for 1995-2009 (95% CL 921, 1467 and an estimated annual increase of 5% (95% CL À2%, 13%). The best model (AIC) gave a superpopulation estimate of 1007 males (95% CL 794, 1276) and an estimated annual increase of 7% (95% CL 5%, 9%) for 1995-2009. Combined, the total superpopulation estimate for 1995-2009 was 2169 whales (95% CL 1836, 2563). Simulations suggest that failure to account for the effect of reproductive status on the capture probability would result in a substantial positive bias (þ19%) in female abundance estimates.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Accounting for female reproductive cycles in a superpopulation capture–recapture framework

Carroll

Childerhouse²,

Fewster

et al. 2013

Ecological Applications

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The simulation results showed that the POPAN model recovered true population sizes well. The results of the simulation study help to identify conditions under which the superpopulation model performs best (i.e., narrow confidence intervals and high accuracy; also see Williams, Frederick andNichols, 2011). As expected, the superpopulation model performs best when both survival and capture probabilities are high.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 59%

The superpopulation approach for estimating the population size of 'prolonged' breeding amphibians: Examples from Europe

Wagner¹,

Pellet

Lötters

et al. 2011

Amphib Reptilia

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Individual members of a population of 'prolonged' breeding amphibian species are asynchronously present at their breeding sites. Therefore, population size estimates can be misleading when based on commonly used closed or open-population capture-mark-recapture approaches. The superpopulation approach, a modified Jolly-Seber model, has been successfully applied in taxa other than amphibians with distinct migratory behaviour and where individuals are asynchronously present at the sampling site. In this paper, we suggest that the superpopulation approach is a useful population size estimator for 'prolonged' breeding amphibian species. Two case studies on European anurans show that superpopulation estimates are much higher than simple population counts. A simulation study showed that superpopulation estimates are unbiased but that accuracy can be low when either survival or detection probabilities (or both) are low. We recommend the superpopulation approach because it matches the natural history and phenology of amphibian species with prolonged breeding seasons.

show abstract

“…A primary benefit to this technique is the rapidity at which we can interpret data from satellites like Landsat, completing a classification within 1 day, as opposed to previous manual classifications of aerial imagery that can take months to years to complete (Rutchey & Vilchek ; Rutchey et al ). This is particularly important because mapping efforts are useful not only for monitoring invasive spread, but they are extremely important as data that can be used to understand process and pattern changes that occur with invasion (Norton‐Griffiths ; Williams et al ; Lowry et al ). A long period of satellite record affords the opportunity to create a database with wide spatial and temporal coverage.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using landscape context to map invasive species with medium‐resolution satellite imagery

Zweig

Newman

2015

Restoration Ecology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The spread of invasive species is a global problem of major ecological and economic concern. Landscape level assessment of invasive spread is critical, but remote sensing (RS) analyses are often complicated by the spectral similarity of species and the need to balance spatial resolution with data storage and analysis complexity. One example is the ridge and slough landscape (RSL) of the Florida Everglades, where inflowing nutrients have facilitated large‐scale cattail invasions. Hand delineation of aerial imagery has been successful in mapping cattail spread, but this technique requires considerable time and effort. Computerized classification of medium‐resolution imagery would increase the ability of scientists to provide up‐to‐date data for water management decisions. Advances in RS technologies have created opportunities that were not previously available in landscapes such as the RSL—to automatically classify sawgrass and cattail communities with medium‐resolution satellite imagery using knowledge of the invasion ecology of cattail and landscape context. We developed a computer‐classification technique that provided measure of cattail expansion that matched ground‐truthed data and show an increase in cattail area (similar to previous estimates), but a reduction in the rate of expansion over time. Although this technique can miss small patches of plants that might indicated new invasions, its rapid mapping can improve tracking of invasion fronts in the Everglades and other landscapes.

show abstract

Use of the superpopulation approach to estimate breeding population size: an example in asynchronously breeding birds

Cited by 28 publications

References 33 publications

Accounting for female reproductive cycles in a superpopulation capture–recapture framework

Accounting for female reproductive cycles in a superpopulation capture–recapture framework

The superpopulation approach for estimating the population size of 'prolonged' breeding amphibians: Examples from Europe

Using landscape context to map invasive species with medium‐resolution satellite imagery

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About