Use of Slaughterhouses as Sentinel Points for Genomic Surveillance of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Southern Vietnam

Gunasekara, Umanga; Bertram, Miranda R.; Dung, Do H.; Hoang, Bui H.; Phượng, Nguyễn Thị Kim; Hung, Vo Van; Long, Nguyen Van Duc; Minh, Phạm Quang; Vu, Le T.; Dong, Pham V.; Pérez, Andrés; VanderWaal, Kimberly; Arzt, Jonathan

doi:10.3390/v13112203

Cited by 5 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 44 publications

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“…This could have impacted our model, for example, by flattening the impact of the temporal effects in other years with the result of identifying similar predicted risk through time. Despite these limitations, this study provides compatible results with other studies [ 8 , 13 , 15 , 18 , 25 ] regarding animal and FMDV movement in Vietnam.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

“…In this study, we utilized two types of data available from Vietnam: (a) data on the reported number of FMD cases per province per year (Department of Animal Health, Vietnam), and (b) FMDV VP1 sequences generated from various research and surveillance projects conducted in Vietnam [ 8 , 9 , 15 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Oropharyngeal fluid (collected by our team from subclinical animals at farms and slaughterhouses) and epithelium (outbreak) samples were screened for the presence of FMDV using virus isolation (VI), followed by detection of viral RNA in VI supernatant using qRT-PCR as previously described [ 12 , 26 ]. Samples that were positive for viral RNA were subjected to sequencing using one of several methods as previously described [ 25 ]. Briefly, samples from 2013–2015 were sequenced using the Sanger method to obtain VP1 sequences [ 8 ], or by next generation sequencing (NGS) of overlapping RT-PCR amplicons covering the full ORF [ 15 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Phylogeography as a Proxy for Population Connectivity for Spatial Modeling of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Vietnam

Gunasekara

Bertram

Long

et al. 2023

Viruses

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Bayesian space–time regression models are helpful tools to describe and predict the distribution of infectious disease outbreaks and to delineate high-risk areas for disease control. In these models, structured and unstructured spatial and temporal effects account for various forms of non-independence amongst case counts across spatial units. Structured spatial effects capture correlations in case counts amongst neighboring provinces arising from shared risk factors or population connectivity. For highly mobile populations, spatial adjacency is an imperfect measure of connectivity due to long-distance movement, but we often lack data on host movements. Phylogeographic models inferring routes of viral dissemination across a region could serve as a proxy for patterns of population connectivity. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the effects of population connectivity in space–time regressions of case counts were better captured by spatial adjacency or by inferences from phylogeographic analyses. To compare these two approaches, we used foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) outbreak data from across Vietnam as an example. We identified that accounting for virus movement through phylogeographic analysis serves as a better proxy for population connectivity than spatial adjacency in spatial–temporal risk models. This approach may contribute to design surveillance activities in countries lacking movement data.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 87%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Phylogeography as a Proxy for Population Connectivity for Spatial Modeling of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Vietnam

Gunasekara

Bertram

Long

et al. 2023

Viruses

Self Cite

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“…FMD is endemic in several countries in Asia. The main serotypes of FMDV circulating in this region are O, A, and Asia 1 [ 12 , 13 ]. Numerous countries in Southeast Asia, including Cambodia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam, are endemic to FMD [ 9 , 13 , 14 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main serotypes of FMDV circulating in this region are O, A, and Asia 1 [ 12 , 13 ]. Numerous countries in Southeast Asia, including Cambodia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Thailand, and Vietnam, are endemic to FMD [ 9 , 13 , 14 ]. Between 2007 and 2017, a total of 4961 FMD outbreaks were reported in these countries [ 15 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time-Series Analysis for the Number of Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak Episodes in Cattle Farms in Thailand Using Data from 2010–2020

Punyapornwithaya

Mishra

Sansamur

et al. 2022

Viruses

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Thailand is one of the countries where foot and mouth disease outbreaks have resulted in considerable economic losses. Forecasting is an important warning technique that can allow authorities to establish an FMD surveillance and control program. This study aimed to model and forecast the monthly number of FMD outbreak episodes (n-FMD episodes) in Thailand using the time-series methods, including seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA), error trend seasonality (ETS), neural network autoregression (NNAR), and Trigonometric Exponential smoothing state–space model with Box–Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (TBATS), and hybrid methods. These methods were applied to monthly n-FMD episodes (n = 1209) from January 2010 to December 2020. Results showed that the n-FMD episodes had a stable trend from 2010 to 2020, but they appeared to increase from 2014 to 2020. The outbreak episodes followed a seasonal pattern, with a predominant peak occurring from September to November annually. The single-technique methods yielded the best-fitting time-series models, including SARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12, NNAR(3,1,2)12,ETS(A,N,A), and TBATS(1,{0,0},0.8,{<12,5>}. Moreover, SARIMA-NNAR and NNAR-TBATS were the hybrid models that performed the best on the validation datasets. The models that incorporate seasonality and a non-linear trend performed better than others. The forecasts highlighted the rising trend of n-FMD episodes in Thailand, which shares borders with several FMD endemic countries in which cross-border trading of cattle is found common. Thus, control strategies and effective measures to prevent FMD outbreaks should be strengthened not only in Thailand but also in neighboring countries.

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Identifying target areas for risk-based surveillance and control of transboundary animal diseases: a seasonal analysis of slaughter and live-trade cattle movements in Uganda

González-Gordon,

Porphyre,

Muwonge

et al. 2023

Sci Rep

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Animal movements are a major driver for the spread of Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs). These movements link populations that would otherwise be isolated and hence create opportunities for susceptible and infected individuals to meet. We used social network analysis to describe the seasonal network structure of cattle movements in Uganda and unravel critical network features that identify districts or sub-regions for targeted risk-based surveillance and intervention. We constructed weighted, directed networks based on 2019 between-district cattle movements using official livestock mobility data; the purpose of the movement (‘slaughter’ vs. ‘live trade’) was used to subset the network and capture the risks more reliably. Our results show that cattle trade can result in local and long-distance disease spread in Uganda. Seasonal variability appears to impact the structure of the network, with high heterogeneity of node and edge activity identified throughout the seasons. These observations mean that the structure of the live trade network can be exploited to target influential district hubs within the cattle corridor and peripheral areas in the south and west, which would result in rapid network fragmentation, reducing the contact structure-related trade risks. Similar exploitable features were observed for the slaughter network, where cattle traffic serves mainly slaughter hubs close to urban centres along the cattle corridor. Critically, analyses that target the complex livestock supply value chain offer a unique framework for understanding and quantifying risks for TADs such as Foot-and-Mouth disease in a land-locked country like Uganda. These findings can be used to inform the development of risk-based surveillance strategies and decision making on resource allocation. For instance, vaccine deployment, biosecurity enforcement and capacity building for stakeholders at the local community and across animal health services with the potential to limit the socio-economic impact of outbreaks, or indeed reduce their frequency.

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Use of Slaughterhouses as Sentinel Points for Genomic Surveillance of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus in Southern Vietnam

Cited by 5 publications

References 44 publications

Phylogeography as a Proxy for Population Connectivity for Spatial Modeling of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Vietnam

Phylogeography as a Proxy for Population Connectivity for Spatial Modeling of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreaks in Vietnam

Time-Series Analysis for the Number of Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak Episodes in Cattle Farms in Thailand Using Data from 2010–2020

Identifying target areas for risk-based surveillance and control of transboundary animal diseases: a seasonal analysis of slaughter and live-trade cattle movements in Uganda

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