Use of Simulation in Evaluating Management Policies under Uncertainty: Application to a Large Scale Ranch

Halter, A. N.; Dean, Gregg A.

doi:10.2307/1236273

Cited by 25 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…The first major whole farm simulation model was developed in 1965 to evaluate alternative ranch management options (Halter and Dean 1965). Numerous improvements were made to this model (Patrick and Eisgruber 1968;Hutton and Hinman 1971;Eisgruber and Lee 1971).…”

Section: Large-scale Computer Models: the 1960smentioning

confidence: 99%

Farm Level Models: A Review of Developments, Concepts and Applications in Canada

Klein

Narayanan

1992

Canadian J Agri Economics

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Development and use of farm‐level models has been a major activity of agricultural economists in Canada during the past twenty‐five years. In this paper, a review is made of the major contributions of Canadian agricultural economists to farm‐level modelling. These activities are interpreted in the context of emerging competition technologies as well as improved understanding of farm‐level decision making. L'élaboration et I'application de modèles d'analyse agro‐économique à I'échelle de I'exploitation agricole individuelle ont été une activité importante des économistes agricoles du Canada au cours des vingt‐cinq dernières années. Les auteurs passent en revue les contributions importantes du Canada dans ce domaine et les interprètent en regard des nouvelles technologies de concurrence, de même que de la meilleure compréhension des mécanismes de prise de décision chez I'exploitant agricole.

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Section: Large-scale Computer Models: the 1960smentioning

confidence: 99%

Farm Level Models: A Review of Developments, Concepts and Applications in Canada

Klein

Narayanan

1992

Canadian J Agri Economics

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“…The second reason for introducing climate variability into the analysis involves the traditional aversion of agricultural producers to risk (Halter and Dean 1965;Anderson et ale 1977;Kunreuther 1972). In general, an individual is said to be risk averse if, given the choice between the expected value of a lottery and an equivalent sum of money with certainty, the individual will always accept the latter.…”

Section: 3mentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

Callaway¹,

Cronin²,

Currie³

et al. 1982

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This research was conducted by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) for the Division of Carbon Dioxide Research within the Office of Basic Energy Sciences, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The overall purpose of this research was to assist DOE in developing methods for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts due to the effects of increases in the ambient concentration of CO 2 on agricultural production. Specifically, the primary obj ec t i ves were:• To determine what economic methods and models have been developed or need to be developed to assess the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO 2 -induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the U.S. economy .• To provide information and recommendations which will enhance DOE's efforts to assess the direct and indirect economic impacts associated with CO 2 buildup, not only as they relate to the agricultural sector, but to other sectors of the U.S. economy as well.Several tasks were required to accomplish these objectives. First, a comprehensive literature search was undertaken to determine what types of models and methods have been developed, which could be effectively used to conduct assessments of the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO 2 buildup. Specific attention was focused upon: (1) models and methods for assessing the physical impacts of CO 2 -induced environmental changes on crop yields, (2) national and multi-regional agricultural sector models, and (3) macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy. The second task of this. research involved a thorough investigation of the research efforts being conducted by other public and private sector organizations in order to determine how more recent analytical methods being developed outside of DOE could be effectively integrated into a more comprehensive analysis of the direct economic impacts of CO 2 buildup. The third and final task of this research involved iii synthesizing the information gathered in the first two tasks into a systematic framework for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of Co 2 -induced environmental changes originating in the agricultural sector of the U.S. economy.The major findings of this research are listed below.• It is anticipated that the direct economic impacts of CO 2 on the agricultural sector and the indirect economic impacts caused by spillover effects from agriculture to other sectors of the economy will be pervasive; however, the direction and magnitude of these impacts on producers and consumers cannot be determined a priori.• Existing agricultural sector models can be effectively linked to macroeconomic models of the U.S. economy to assess the potential scope and magnitude of the economic impacts associated with CO 2 -induced environmental changes that originate in the agricultural sector.• Because of the time frame involved, it is highly unlikely that any type of economic analysis will be able to predict these impacts with any reliable degree of confidence at this time; however, existing models and methods can be used at this t...

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“…The biological complexities of the farm system and the uncertainties due to weather and economic change can be adequately represented in simulation models which therefore may be applied to the study of the farm business [Halter and Dean, 1965;Mitchell, 1972]. The biological complexities of the farm system and the uncertainties due to weather and economic change can be adequately represented in simulation models which therefore may be applied to the study of the farm business [Halter and Dean, 1965;Mitchell, 1972].…”

Section: Simulation As a Farm Management Aidmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Planning and control system for the small firm: A development of operations research application in agriculture

Blackie

Dent

1973

Zeitschrift für Operations Research

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This article reviews the use of operations research techniques in agriculture and suggests the methods available have not been fully exploited due to both the strong influences of biological factors on the farm business and the variety of tasks that the manager has to perform. There would appear to be a requirement for a simple system of business control which provides a rapid analysis of farm data without involving the manager in excessive time-consuming recording. A pig enterprise simulation model has been developed which can be combined with data from pig herds to provide a forecast of individual herd performance. This model could be used as the basis of a national or regional budgetary control scheme to provide farm managers with regular and current budgetary control information at relatively low cost. Zusammenfassuno." Der Artikel gibt einen Oberblick fiber OR-Techniken in der Landwirtschaft.Es wird angedeutet, dab die vorhandenen Methoden nicht voll genutzt werden, wegen des groBen Einflusses biologischer Faktoren und der Aufgabenvielfalt, die der anwendende Landwirt zu erffillen hat. Nfitzlich w~ire ein einfaches System der Gesch~iftsffihrung, das eine schnelle Analyse landwirtschaftlicher Daten erlaubt, ohne den Manager durch aufwendige Aufzeichnungen zu beanspruchen. Es ist das Simulationsmodell eines Schweinezuchtbetriebes entwickelt worden, das in Verbindung mit den Zuchtdaten benutzt werden kann, um individuelle Vorhersagen zu liefern. Das Modell k6nnte als Basis einer nationalen oder regionalen Bestandssteuerung eingesetzt werden, um den Farmer bei relativ geringen Kosten mit regelm~iBigen und zeitnahen Steuerungsinformationen zu versorgen.

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Use of Simulation in Evaluating Management Policies under Uncertainty: Application to a Large Scale Ranch

Cited by 25 publications

References 0 publications

Farm Level Models: A Review of Developments, Concepts and Applications in Canada

Farm Level Models: A Review of Developments, Concepts and Applications in Canada

Analysis of methods and models for assessing the direct and indirect economic impacts of CO/sub 2/-induced environmental changes in the agricultural sector of the US economy

A Planning and control system for the small firm: A development of operations research application in agriculture

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