Use of Occupancy Models to Evaluate Expert Knowledge-based Species-Habitat Relationships

Iglecia, Monica; Collazo, Jaime A.; McKerrow, Alexa J.

doi:10.5751/ace-00551-070205

Cited by 14 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Simulation studies have shown that even a weaker correlation ( θ = 0.10, θ ’ = 0.50) could significantly bias estimates of ψ (Hines et al ., ), indicating the importance of considering correlation along linear transects of point counts. Detections in the BBS are also correlated for the Brown‐headed Nuthatch ( Sitta pusilla ) and Eastern Wood‐Pewee ( Contopus virens ), but not for the Red‐headed Woodpecker ( Melanerpes erythrocephalus ), indicating that correlated detection occupancy models may often, but not always, be preferred over standard occupancy models (Iglecia et al ., ; Hines et al ., ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

Clement

Hines

Nichols

et al. 2016

Global Change Biology

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There is intense interest in basic and applied ecology about the effect of global change on current and future species distributions. Projections based on widely used static modeling methods implicitly assume that species are in equilibrium with the environment and that detection during surveys is perfect. We used multiseason correlated detection occupancy models, which avoid these assumptions, to relate climate data to distributional shifts of Louisiana Waterthrush in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. We summarized these shifts with indices of range size and position and compared them to the same indices obtained using more basic modeling approaches. Detection rates during point counts in BBS surveys were low, and models that ignored imperfect detection severely underestimated the proportion of area occupied and slightly overestimated mean latitude. Static models indicated Louisiana Waterthrush distribution was most closely associated with moderate temperatures, while dynamic occupancy models indicated that initial occupancy was associated with diurnal temperature ranges and colonization of sites was associated with moderate precipitation. Overall, the proportion of area occupied and mean latitude changed little during the 1997-2013 study period. Near-term forecasts of species distribution generated by dynamic models were more similar to subsequently observed distributions than forecasts from static models. Occupancy models incorporating a finite mixture model on detection - a new extension to correlated detection occupancy models - were better supported and may reduce bias associated with detection heterogeneity. We argue that replacing phenomenological static models with more mechanistic dynamic models can improve projections of future species distributions. In turn, better projections can improve biodiversity forecasts, management decisions, and understanding of global change biology.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

Clement

Hines

Nichols

et al. 2016

Global Change Biology

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“…To address this lack of conformity, we used expert knowledge to allow for synthesis among bycatch records. Expert knowledge has been shown to be a necessary approach to account for data gaps and synthesize existing knowledge and disparate data (26)(27)(28)(29). Our expert panel consisted of 17 independent experts (5,6, and 6 experts with expertise in seabirds, marine mammals, and sea turtles, respectively) with at least 5 y of experience in fisheries bycatch evaluating the intensity of each bycatch record from high (five) to low (one) within each gear category type.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Global patterns of marine mammal, seabird, and sea turtle bycatch reveal taxa-specific and cumulative megafauna hotspots

Lewison

Crowder

Wallace³

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

381

313

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Recent research on ocean health has found large predator abundance to be a key element of ocean condition. Fisheries can impact large predator abundance directly through targeted capture and indirectly through incidental capture of nontarget species or bycatch. However, measures of the global nature of bycatch are lacking for air-breathing megafauna. We fill this knowledge gap and present a synoptic global assessment of the distribution and intensity of bycatch of seabirds, marine mammals, and sea turtles based on empirical data from the three most commonly used types of fishing gears worldwide. We identify taxa-specific hotspots of bycatch intensity and find evidence of cumulative impacts across fishing fleets and gears. This global map of bycatch illustrates where data are particularly scarce-in coastal and small-scale fisheries and ocean regions that support developed industrial fisheries and millions of small-scale fishers-and identifies fishing areas where, given the evidence of cumulative hotspots across gear and taxa, traditional species or gear-specific bycatch management and mitigation efforts may be necessary but not sufficient. Given the global distribution of bycatch and the mitigation success achieved by some fleets, the reduction of air-breathing megafauna bycatch is both an urgent and achievable conservation priority.fisheries bycatch | trophic downgrading | longlines | gillnets | trawls

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“…during the breeding season drive changes in bird distributions because inappropriate habitat will not provide sufficient food and shelter for breeding birds (Friggens & Finch, 2015;Iglecia, Collazo, & McKerrow, 2012). For the Eastern Wood Pewee, we defined appropriate habitats as deciduous forest, evergreen forest, and mixed forest (Hamel, 1992).…”

Section: Changes In the Amount Of Appropriate Habitat Locally Availablementioning

confidence: 99%

Partitioning global change: Assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution

Clement

Nichols

Collazo

et al. 2019

Ecology and Evolution

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Understanding the relative impact of climate change and land cover change on changes in avian distribution has implications for the future course of avian distributions and appropriate management strategies. Due to the dynamic nature of climate change, our goal was to investigate the processes that shape species distributions, rather than the current distributional patterns. To this end, we analyzed changes in the distribution of Eastern Wood Pewees ( Contopus virens ) and Red‐eyed Vireos ( Vireo olivaceus ) from 1997 to 2012 using Breeding Bird Survey data and dynamic correlated‐detection occupancy models. We estimated the local colonization and extinction rates of these species in relation to changes in climate (hours of extreme temperature) and changes in land cover (amount of nesting habitat). We fit six nested models to partition the deviance explained by spatial and temporal components of land cover and climate. We isolated the temporal components of environmental variables because this is the essence of global change. For both species, model fit was significantly improved when we modeled vital rates as a function of spatial variation in climate and land cover. Model fit improved only marginally when we added temporal variation in climate and land cover to the model. Temporal variation in climate explained more deviance than temporal variation in land cover, although both combined only explained 20% (Eastern Wood Pewee) and 6% (Red‐eyed Vireo) of temporal variation in vital rates. Our results showing a significant correlation between initial occupancy and environmental covariates are consistent with biological expectation and previous studies. The weak correlation between vital rates and temporal changes in covariates indicated that we have yet to identify the most relevant components of global change influencing the distributions of these species and, more importantly, that spatially significant covariates are not necessarily driving temporal shifts in avian distributions.

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Use of Occupancy Models to Evaluate Expert Knowledge-based Species-Habitat Relationships

Cited by 14 publications

References 38 publications

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

Estimating indices of range shifts in birds using dynamic models when detection is imperfect

Global patterns of marine mammal, seabird, and sea turtle bycatch reveal taxa-specific and cumulative megafauna hotspots

Partitioning global change: Assessing the relative importance of changes in climate and land cover for changes in avian distribution

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