Use of immunological markers and continuous-time Markov models to estimate progression of HIV infection in homosexual men

Hendriks, Jan C.M.; Satten, Glen A.; Longini, Ira M.; Druten, H. A. M. Van; Schellekens, P. T. A.; Coutinho, R. A.; Griensven, G. J. P. Van

doi:10.1097/00002030-199606000-00011

Cited by 39 publications

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“…We compared the rate of decline in CD4 T cell counts for 149 HIV-1-infected Ethiopians with that for 306 HIV-1-infected Dutch homosexual men and 181 HIV-1-infected Dutch drug users between 1990 and 1995 (i.e., before highly active antiretroviral therapy [HAART] was available in The Netherlands). The Dutch individuals were participants in the ongoing Amsterdam cohort studies [19,32]. Follow-up visits were scheduled every 3 and 4 months for Dutch homosexual men and drug users, respectively.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low CD4 T Cell Counts before HIV‐1 Seroconversion Do Not Affect Disease Progression in Ethiopian Factory Workers

et al. 2005

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Background. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-uninfected Ethiopians have lower CD4 T cell counts than do other populations in Africa and industrialized countries. We studied whether this unique immunological profile results in shorter survival times in HIV-1-infected Ethiopians.Methods.Data from an open cohort study of 149 HIV-1-infected factory workers in Ethiopia for 1997-2002 were used. To estimate survival times, a continuous-time Markov model was designed on the basis of CD4 T cell counts and World Health Organization clinical staging. By use of a random-effects model, decline in CD4 T cell counts was compared between HIV-1-infected Ethiopian and Dutch individuals.Results. Median survival times were in the range of 9.1-13.7 years, depending on the approach used. This range is similar to that for populations in industrialized countries before the advent of antiretroviral therapy. Ethiopians had a lower annual decline in CD4 T cell counts than did Dutch individuals, which remained when groups with similar CD4 T cell count categories were compared. Moreover, the slower decline in CD4 T cell counts was not due merely to lower HIV-1 RNA loads or an absence of syncytium-inducing/X4 HIV-1 subtype C strains in Ethiopians.Conclusions. Low baseline CD4 T cell counts do not imply shorter survival times in Ethiopians than in other populations, presumably because of a slower decline in CD4 T cell counts.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Low CD4 T Cell Counts before HIV‐1 Seroconversion Do Not Affect Disease Progression in Ethiopian Factory Workers

et al. 2005

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“…measures of viral load), and the patient's history of clinical events, and then specify the probability of moving from one state to another. These models customarily assume that the probability of clinical progression depends only on the health state and not on the patient's previous history (this assumption is referred to as the Markovian assumption and these models are referred to as Markov models) [38,39].…”

Section: Hiv Disease Transition Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Cost Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis for HIV Prevention in the US

Hellinger

2013

PharmacoEconomics

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About 50,000 people are infected with HIV in the US each year and this number has remained virtually the same for the past decade. Yet, in the last few years, evidence from several multinational randomized clinical trials has shown that the provision of antiretroviral drug to uninfected persons (i.e. pre-exposure prophylaxis) reduces the incidence of HIV by about 50 %. However, evidence from cost-effectiveness studies conducted in the US yield widely varying estimates of the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and this variation reflects the substantial uncertainty surrounding the determinants of HIV transmission (e.g. adherence rates to prophylactic medications, the average number of sexual partners, the number and types of sexual acts, the viral load of infected partners, and the proportion of contacts where condoms are used), as well as different approaches to translating a reduction in HIV cases into an estimate of the increase in the number of QALYs. Key Points for Decision Makers• Pre-exposure prophylaxis programs have the potential to lower the cost of the HIV epidemic in the US.• Studies of the cost effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis programs should explain and justify assumptions underlying their economic model of HIV transmission.• It is important to recognize that different assumptions about the patterns of sexual behaviour of men who have sex with men may produce very different estimates of the cost effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis programs.

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“…В последующие годы Саттен с соавторами совершенствовали базовую модель Лонджини, повышая качество приближения результатов к наблюдаемой ситуации [33][34][35].…”

Section: ) стадия спида традиционно обозначена символом Aunclassified

Models of Control and Spread of HIV-infection

Nosova¹

2012

Math.Biol.Bioinf.

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Use of immunological markers and continuous-time Markov models to estimate progression of HIV infection in homosexual men

Cited by 39 publications

References 0 publications

Low CD4 T Cell Counts before HIV‐1 Seroconversion Do Not Affect Disease Progression in Ethiopian Factory Workers

Low CD4 T Cell Counts before HIV‐1 Seroconversion Do Not Affect Disease Progression in Ethiopian Factory Workers

Assessing the Cost Effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis for HIV Prevention in the US

Models of Control and Spread of HIV-infection

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