Use of Bayesian belief networks for dealing with ambiguity in integrated groundwater management

Henriksen, Hans Jørgen; Zorrilla-Miras, Pedro; Portillo, África de la Hera; Brugnach, Marcela

doi:10.1002/ieam.195

Cited by 32 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…Bayesian belief networks are often suggested as tools for participatory modeling, e.g., in the groundwater application of Henriksen et al (2012). In this modeling approach, a system network is constructed that link various biophysical processes to environmental outcomes, and various decision scenarios can be explored to predict impact to the outcomes.…”

Section: Communication Of Results Scenario Building and Participatomentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizen science in hydrology and water resources: opportunities for knowledge generation, ecosystem service management, and sustainable development

et al. 2014

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The participation of the general public in the research design, data collection and interpretation process together with scientists is often referred to as citizen science. While citizen science itself has existed since the start of scientific practice, developments in sensing technology, data processing and visualization, and communication of ideas and results, are creating a wide range of new opportunities for public participation in scientific research. This paper reviews the state of citizen science in a hydrological context and explores the potential of citizen science to complement more traditional ways of scientific data collection and knowledge generation for hydrological sciences and water resources management. Although hydrological data collection often involves advanced technology, the advent of robust, cheap, and low-maintenance sensing equipment provides unprecedented opportunities for data collection in a citizen science context. These data have a significant potential to create new hydrological knowledge, especially in relation to the characterization of process heterogeneity, remote regions, and human impacts on the water cycle. However, the nature and quality of data collected in citizen science experiments is potentially very different from those of traditional monitoring networks. This poses challenges in terms of their processing, interpretation, and use, especially with regard to assimilation of traditional knowledge, the quantification of uncertainties, and their role in decision support. It also requires care in designing citizen science projects such that the generated data complement optimally other available knowledge. Lastly, using 4 case studies from remote mountain regions we reflect on the challenges and opportunities in the integration of hydrologically-oriented citizen science in water resources management, the role of scientific knowledge in the decision-making process, and the potential contestation to established community institutions posed by co-generation of new knowledge.

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Section: Communication Of Results Scenario Building and Participatomentioning

confidence: 99%

Citizen science in hydrology and water resources: opportunities for knowledge generation, ecosystem service management, and sustainable development

et al. 2014

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“…In practice, this implied a return to near‐pristine hydrological conditions after 40 years of intensive pumping. Though anticipated in several modelling studies (Martínez‐Santos, Llamas, & Martínez‐Alfaro, ; Zorrilla et al, ; Martínez‐Santos, Henriksen, Zorrilla, & Martínez‐Alfaro, ), this triggered an unexpected situation for water managers and stakeholders (Martínez‐Santos et al, ), thus highlighting the need to develop adaptive management strategies to manage groundwater under uncertainty (Henriksen, Zorrilla‐Miras, de la Hera, & Brugnach, ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term effects of aquifer overdraft and recovery on groundwater quality in a Ramsar wetland: Las Tablas de Daimiel National Park, Spain

Castaño

Losa

Martínez‐Santos

et al. 2018

Hydrological Processes

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Las Tablas de Daimiel National Park is one of Spain's most representative groundwater‐dependent ecosystems. Under natural conditions, water inflows combined brackish surface water from River Gigüela with freshwater inputs from River Guadiana and the underlying aquifer. Since the mid‐1970s, aquifer overexploitation caused the desiccation of the wetlands and neighbouring springs. The National Park remained in precarious hydrological conditions for three decades, with the only exception of rapid floods due to extreme rainfall events and sporadic water transfers from other basins. In the late 2000s, a decrease in groundwater abstraction and an extraordinarily wet period reversed the trend. The aquifer experienced an unexpected recovery of groundwater levels (over 20 m in some areas), thus restoring groundwater discharge to springs and wetlands. The complex historical evolution of the water balance in this site has resulted in substantial changes in surface and groundwater quality. This becomes evident when comparing the pre‐1980 groundwater quality and the hydrochemical status in the wetland in two different periods, under “dry” and “wet” conditions. Although the system is close to full recovery from the groundwater‐level viewpoint, bouncing back in the major hydrochemical constituents has not yet been obtained. These still appear to evolve in response to the previous overexploitation state. Moreover, in some sectors, there are groundwater‐dependent ecosystems that remain different to those found in preoverexploitation times. The experience of Las Tablas de Damiel provides an observatory of long‐term changes in wetland water quality, demonstrating that the effects of aquifer overexploitation on aquatic ecosystems are more than a mere alteration of the water balance and that groundwater quality is the key to aquifer and aquatic ecosystem sustainability.

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“…Since their introduction in the mid-80s, BBNs have been adopted in various scientific fields, and are becoming increasingly popular tools in environmental modeling (e.g., Sadoddin et al, 2009;Haines-Young, 2011;Farmani et al, 2012;Henriksen et al, 2012;Troldborg et al, 2013), in particular to quantify and map ecosystem services (Grêt-Regamey et al, 2013;Landuyt et al, 2013Landuyt et al, , 2015Celio et al, 2014;Rositano and Ferraro, 2014;Taalab et al, 2015). Formally, a BBN is a probabilistic model that represents graphically a set of random variables and their conditional dependencies via a network, referred to technically as a directed acyclic graph (DAG).…”

Section: Uncertainties Bayesian Belief Network and The Top-down Apmentioning

confidence: 99%

Soil “Ecosystem” Services and Natural Capital: Critical Appraisal of Research on Uncertain Ground

Baveye

Gowdy

2016

Front. Environ. Sci.

306

168

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Use of Bayesian belief networks for dealing with ambiguity in integrated groundwater management

Cited by 32 publications

References 40 publications

Citizen science in hydrology and water resources: opportunities for knowledge generation, ecosystem service management, and sustainable development

Citizen science in hydrology and water resources: opportunities for knowledge generation, ecosystem service management, and sustainable development

Long‐term effects of aquifer overdraft and recovery on groundwater quality in a Ramsar wetland: Las Tablas de Daimiel National Park, Spain

Soil “Ecosystem” Services and Natural Capital: Critical Appraisal of Research on Uncertain Ground

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