Usable Science? The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 and Decision Support for Adaptation Planning

Abstract

With future changes in climate being inevitable, adaptation planning has become a policy priority. A central element in adaptation planning is scientific expertise and knowledge of what the future climate may hold. The U.K. Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) provide climate information designed to help those needing to plan how to adapt to a changing climate. This paper attempts to determine how useful and usable UKCP09 is for adaptation decision making. The study used a mixed-methods approach that includes analysis of adaptation reports, a quantitative survey, and semistructured interviews with key adaptation stakeholders working in the science-policy interface, which included decision makers, knowledge producers, and knowledge translators. The knowledge system criteria were used to assess the credibility, legitimacy, and saliency of UKCP09 for each stakeholder group. It emerged that stakeholders perceived UKCP09 to be credible and legitimate because of its sophistication, funding source, and the scientific reputation of organizations involved in UKCP09's development. However, because of the inherent complexities of decision making and a potentially greater diversity in users, UKCP09's saliency was found to be dependent upon the scientific competence and familiarity of the user(s) in dealing with climate information. An example of this was the use of Bayesian probabilistic projections, which improved the credibility and legitimacy of UKCP09's science but reduced the saliency for decision making. This research raises the question of whether the tailoring of climate projections is needed to enhance their salience for decision making, while recognizing that it is difficult to balance the three knowledge criteria in the production of usable science.

Actionable Knowledge for Environmental Decision Making: Broadening the Usability of Climate Science

“…For scientific information to be usable, decision-makers must perceive it to be credible, salient and legitimate (12). To be judged by these criteria, scientific knowledge needs to show distinctive characteristics decision-makers recognize (76). For instance, information is likely to be deemed credible if the science is accurate, valid, of high quality, supported by some form of peer review, and funded from one or more recognizable or established institutions.…”

Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany

“…Archer 2003;Kiem and Austin 2013;Kirchhoff 2013;Tang and Dessai 2012). Research suggests that the interaction at this boundary between knowledge and action can be more effective if an iterative approach is employed, which focuses on the production of usable climate science (Lemos and Morehouse 2005).…”

The Myopia of Imperfect Climate Models: The Case of UKCP09

“…1 But knowing that the climate is getting warmer on average is of limited use in designing detailed adaptation strategies. 2 The impact of climate change on humans occurs at a local scale, and so ideally we would like to know what changes we have to expect in our immediate environment, and reliable answers would greatly aid decision makers (Oreskes et al 2010;Smith and Stern 2011;Tang and Dessai 2012).…”