Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea-Level Rise

Kopp, Robert; Gilmore, Elisabeth A.; Little, Christopher M.; Lorenzo‐Trueba, Jorge; Ramenzoni, Victoria C.; Sweet, William

doi:10.1130/abs/2020am-350856

Cited by 13 publications

(27 citation statements)

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“…Previous work has shown that accounting for different physics in Antarctica can result in substantially different probabilistic projections of SLR by the end of the century (Jevrejeva et al, 2019; Kopp et al, 2019). Here we demonstrated a similar sensitivity to different plausible ranges of ECS, including important effects on SLR time horizons and regional projections.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This parameterization reflects bulk contributions from hydrofracturing and ice cliff instability. While there is deep uncertainty regarding the role of ice cliff instability over the coming centuries (Edwards et al, 2019; Kopp et al, 2019), its inclusion in BRICK improves model calibration to paleoclimate data (Wong, Bakker, & Keller, 2017). We also replace the temperature‐dependent ocean thermal expansion calculation (Mengel et al, 2016) with one that is calculated directly from changes in ocean heat content.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections

Vega-Westhoff

Sriver

Hartin

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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The current uncertainty surrounding the Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity is an important driver for climate hazard projections. While the implications for projected global temperature changes have been extensively studied, the impacts on sea level projections have been relatively unexplored. Here we analyze the relationship between the climate sensitivity and sea level projections, with a particular focus on the high‐impact upper tail. We utilize a Bayesian calibration of key climate and sea level parameters using historical observations and the reduced‐complexity Earth system model, Hector‐BRICK. This methodology allows us to focus on plausible realizations of the climate system in a probabilistic framework. We analyze the effects of high‐end climate sensitivity (above 5 K) on projections and spatial patterns of sea level change. The sea level projections hinge critically on the upper tail of the climate sensitivity, especially for the highly decision‐relevant upper tail. Results have important implications for timing of threshold exceedances and regional variability.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections

Vega-Westhoff

Sriver

Hartin

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…A wide range of products are necessary to meet the diverse needs of stakeholders (Hinkel et al., 2019; Kopp et al., 2019; Moon et al., 2020). In the United Sates, the de‐centralized nature of these products presents a challenge to stakeholders and boundary organizations to navigate and to subsequently establish consistent pipelines from the science that support decision‐making efforts (Moon et al., 2020).…”

Section: Improving Support For Sea‐level Data and Servicesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Improved understanding of present day and future threats at the coast will enable sound public policy and risk‐informed decision making. Several recent studies have discussed the challenges of providing such information to stakeholders (e.g., Hinkel et al., 2018, 2019; Kopp et al., 2019; Le Cozannet et al., 2017; McEvoy et al., 2021; Moon et al., 2020). As is made clear through comparing and contrasting these studies, however, the challenges are not all universal and addressing stakeholder needs around the world can require different approaches and considerations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Coordinated Science Support for Sea‐Level Data and Services in the United States

Hamlington

Osler

Vinogradova³

et al. 2021

AGU Advances

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Changing climate manifests in many ways, with rising seas being one of the most tangible consequences. Sea-level rise increases coastal flood risk to communities, damages infrastructure, raises groundwater, impacts freshwater supplies, exacerbates coastal erosion, and threatens ecosystems and biodiversity. Beyond these direct impacts, the effects of sea-level rise are also felt across many sectors of our society, including public health, emergency preparedness, insurance, finance, real estate, urban planning, infrastructure design, marine commerce, ecosystem restoration, marine resource management and, national security, among others. The coastal counties of the United States produce more than $9 trillion in goods and services annually and are home to over 127 million people (NOAA, 2021). Over the past century, sea level relative to land has risen around the coastlines of the United States by over 0.3 m (1 foot) on average, with increases driven by a combination of rising sea level and movement of land (Figure 1; e.g., Hamlington et al., 2020;Sweet et al., 2017). As a direct consequence, flooding within U.S. coastal communities has doubled in frequency since 2000 and now averages two to six events per year (Sweet al., 2020). Additional direct impacts are ongoing and worsening and an increase in the indirect impacts listed above is expected to quickly follow. In short, there is an urgent need to take action and begin planning for ongoing and worsening sea-level rise. This urgency was recently conveyed at the national level in the United States. Within hours of taking the Oath of Office, President Biden rejoined the Paris climate agreement and made climate change a national priority. With the ambitious plan for environmental justice, President Biden's climate plan seeks to "build

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“…However, historical records are relatively short and have only observed a limited number of meteorologic and climatic extremes that produce compound flood events. Consequently, methods that assume observed distributions of ESLs are a stationary process superimposed on SLR curves can be insufficient for projecting compound extremes (R. E. Kopp et al., 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projecting Climate Dependent Coastal Flood Risk With a Hybrid Statistical Dynamical Model

et al. 2021

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Numerical models for tides, storm surge, and wave runup have demonstrated ability to accurately define spatially varying flood surfaces. However these models are typically too computationally expensive to dynamically simulate the full parameter space of future oceanographic, atmospheric, and hydrologic conditions that will constructively compound in the nearshore to cause both extreme event and nuisance flooding during the 21st century. A surrogate modeling framework of waves, winds, and tides is developed in this study to efficiently predict spatially varying nearshore and estuarine water levels contingent on any combination of offshore forcing conditions. The surrogate models are coupled with a time‐dependent stochastic climate emulator that provides efficient downscaling for hypothetical iterations of offshore conditions. Together, the hybrid statistical‐dynamical framework can assess present day and future coastal flood risk, including the chronological characteristics of individual flood and wave‐induced dune overtopping events and their changes into the future. The framework is demonstrated at Naval Base Coronado in San Diego, CA, utilizing the regional Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS; composed of Delft3D and XBeach) as the dynamic simulator and Gaussian process regression as the surrogate modeling tool. Validation of the framework uses both in‐situ tide gauge observations within San Diego Bay, and a nearshore cross‐shore array deployment of pressure sensors in the open beach surf zone. The framework reveals the relative influence of large‐scale climate variability on future coastal flood resilience metrics relevant to the management of an open coast artificial berm, as well as the stochastic nature of future total water levels.

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Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea-Level Rise

Cited by 13 publications

References 0 publications

The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections

The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections

Coordinated Science Support for Sea‐Level Data and Services in the United States

Projecting Climate Dependent Coastal Flood Risk With a Hybrid Statistical Dynamical Model

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