US policy in the South Caucasus prior to and after the 2020 Karabakh War in the Context of the Evolving Regional and International Geopolitics

Abstract

The article analyzes the main directions of US foreign policy in the South Caucasus before and after the Artsakh war in 2020, taking into account new regional and geopolitical challenges. It is shown that the United States considers the policy in the South Caucasus in the context of Russian-American relations. In recent years, the South Caucasus has not been included in the US foreign policy priorities, yielding to both the Asia-Pacific region and Ukraine. Under US President Trump, the three main US goals in the region were to include the South Caucasus in a policy of maximum pressure on Iran, launch the Southern Gas Corridor, and contain Russia. The US took a rather passive position during the 2020 Artsakh war, limiting itself only to calls for a cessation of hostilities and the organization of a meeting between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington. As a result of the study, it was substantiated that after the end of the Artsakh war, the main goal of the US was to eliminate the Russian monopoly in the process of resolving the conflict. After the outbreak of the war in Ukraine on February 24, 2022 and the complete breakdown of Russian-American relations, the weakening of Russia’s position in the South Caucasus became the cornerstone of US regional policy.

Influence of the relationship between the protector state and regional hegemon on the resilience of a non-recognised state

“…These are some of the reasons why Iran tends to be pro-Armenian or pragmatic. While in earlier years (for example, in the first Karabakh war) Iran's pro-Armenian position was clearer, today it is somewhat blurred due to political considerations (Poghosyan 2022). Nevertheless, in relative terms, Armenia maintains the closest economic, security policy contacts with Iran compared to other neighbouring states.…”