US alternative jet fuel deployment scenario analyses identifying key drivers and geospatial patterns for the first billion gallons^,

Abstract

The aviation sector's commitments to carbon‐neutral growth in international aviation starting in 2020, and the desire to improve supply surety, price stability, and the environmental performance of aviation fuels, have led to broad interest in sustainable alternative jet fuels. Here, we use the system‐dynamics‐based biomass scenario model (BSM), focused on alternative jet fuel production capacity evolution, and the geospatially explicit Freight and Fuel Transportation Optimization Tool (FTOT), focused on optimal feedstock and fuel flows over the transportation system, to explore the incentive effects on alternative jet fuel production capacity trajectories and potential geospatial patterns of production and delivery in the USA. Scenarios presented here focus on readily available waste feedstocks (waste fats, oils and greases, municipal solid waste, and crop and forestry residues) and conversion technologies included in the ASTM D7566 synthesized aviation turbine fuels specification. The BSM modeling of possible deployment trajectories from 2015 to 2045 suggests that up to 8 billion gallons may be available by 2045 depending on the policies and incentives implemented. Both approaches suggest that 200 million to 1 billion gallons per year of alternative jet fuel production are possible in 2030 given multiple incentives and a favorable investment climate, and that capital costs and technology maturation rates will affect deployment of different fuel production technologies, and therefore the feedstocks needed. Further collaboration on these modeling approaches would reduce methodological blind spots while providing insights into future industry trajectories. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Editorial: The motivations for and the value proposition of sustainable aviation fuels

“…For real world costs as currently understood, researchers are implementing stochastic and deterministic TEA analysis assuming various policies and technology maturation rates to aid in thinking about uncertain future conditions (Tanzil, et al; Trejo-Pech et al). Other researchers are analyzing the influence of technoeconomics, technology maturation rates, and policies on deployment potential for SAF and other fuels (Newes, Han, & Peterson, 2017;Lewis, et al, 2018).…”

“…Other tools have been developed to identify supply chain development and deployment opportunities, including tools for siting biorefineries based on geographic variation in capital and operational costs and resource availability (e.g., (English et al) and how geography and transportation scenarios and disruptions influence supply chain performance (Lewis, et al, 2018). Social criteria, including social capital and cultural capital, should be considered when identifying the potential suitability of biorefinery candidate locations (Anderson et al).…”

“…Compliance with regulatory schemes such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, and others can also provide both sustainability assurance and economic benefits (e.g., sellable Renewable Identification Numbers). Enhancement of ecosystem services are another way to demonstrate environmental benefits and potentially add revenue for feedstock producers (Gasparatos, et al, 2018;Brandt et al).…”

Cost and Profitability Analysis of a Prospective Pennycress to Sustainable Aviation Fuel Supply Chain in Southern USA

“…In the US, interest in SAF by the commercial aviation industry is mainly driven by petroleumbased jet fuel price instability, energy security, environmental performance, and the impending implementation of CORSIA for international flights [4]. Currently, at least two biorefineries are commercializing SAF in the US.…”

“…The potential for growth of SAF consumption in the US depends upon several factors including feedstock availability, oil conversion technology, aviation industry demand, and overall supply chain profitability. Lewis et al [4] modeled SAF production capacity in the US and concluded that significant production and distribution of SAF are possible by 2030 if appropriate incentives, such as higher guarantee rates or higher renewable identification number (RIN) prices along with high oil prices and investment deployment are in place. Without substantial changes in current incentives, the authors conclude that between 0.76 and 10.22 billion liters of SAF could be produced and distributed by 2030, with simulations showing that 1 billion gallons could be produced by 2030 with a 38% probability.…”